{"id": "1203271789099548674", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T03:00:00Z", "msg": "143\nWTPA43 PHFO 210236\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   3\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n  \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with \nTropical Depression Two-C has weakened slightly during the past \nseveral hours, with most of the deep convection positioned over the \nwestern semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates \nfrom JTWC and HFO remain T2.0/30 kt and are generally consistent \nwith the objective intensity estimates. Therefore, the initial \nintensity is held at 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance \naircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday. \n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt, and this general \nmotion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone \nremains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual \nturn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge \nbuilds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in \ngenerally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists \nas the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands \nthis weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast \nreflects a blend of the previous forecast, ECMWF, and the GFS \nsolutions, and generally lies near the northern side of the \nguidance envelope. \n\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening \nduring the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to remain over \nwarm waters and within an adequately moist environment while \nvertical wind shear remains relatively weak. These conditions should \nsupport steady intensification as the system approaches the vicinity \nof the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond about 72 h, increasing shear and a \nprogressively drier surrounding environment should induce a \nweakening trend by early next week as it passes south of the \nHawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system \nbecoming a strong tropical storm this weekend, followed by gradual \nweakening, and remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves \nwest-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over \nthe next couple of days.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will begin \nto impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading \nwestward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into \nMonday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and \nmudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were \naffected recently by Lala.\n \n3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands \nregardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches \nmay be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands by Friday and \nresidents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and \nensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0300Z 12.9N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}