{"id": "1203271494003294210", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-21T03:00:00Z", "msg": "126\nWTPA42 PHFO 210235\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  35\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n \nLala's satellite presentation has changed little during the past\nseveral hours, characterized by a persistent band of deep convection\nover the western semicircle of the inner core. While intermittent\ndry air entrainment has occurred, the cyclone has successfully\nfended off these intrusions before they could significantly disrupt\nthe overall structure.  The current Subjective and objective\nsatellite intensity estimates show a large spread, ranging from 65\nto 92 kt. Given the relatively steady state of the system and a\nblend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt for\nthis advisory.\n \nThe hurricane has made the anticipated turn toward the north, with\nan estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt. This general heading should\ncontinue for the next day or so. Thereafter, a large mid-level ridge\nover the central Pacific is forecast to build to the northeast of\nthe system, which should cause Lala to turn back toward the\nnorthwest. The track model guidance is in fairly good agreement\nthroughout the forecast period, with the primary spread consisting\nof only minor along-track differences in forward speed. The updated\nNHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies\nnear the various multi-model consensus aids, including the GDMI.\n \nLala will remain a strong hurricane as it moves through the\nPapahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, passing near or over\nsome of the atolls tonight into tomorrow and lingering within the\nmonument area for the next couple of days. Intensity guidance\nindicates that some fluctuations in strength are possible during the\nnext day or so. The cyclone is currently situated in an environment\nwith enhanced upper-level divergence, which is helping to offset the\nnegative impacts of moderate vertical wind shear and dry air. Thus,\nthe official intensity forecast shows little change in strength in\nthe short term. By this weekend, a gradual weakening trend should\ncommence, in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid, as the\nfavorable divergence aloft wanes and the shear and dry air begin to\ntake a greater toll on the system. In about 3 days, Lala is forecast\nto move over increasingly cooler sea surface temperatures. The\ncombination of cooler waters, persistent shear, and a dry mid-level\nenvironment should induce a steadier rate of weakening. Although the\nofficial forecast does not explicitly depict Lala becoming a\npost-tropical cyclone at the end of the forecast period, some global\nmodels suggest the system could struggle to maintain organized deep\nconvection by Day 5.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  21/0300Z 25.6N 172.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 28.9N 171.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 30.3N 172.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 31.3N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  23/1200Z 32.0N 174.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 32.7N 175.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 34.0N 177.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  26/0000Z 35.5N 178.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}