{"msg": "649\nAXNT20 KNHC 202255\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Aug 21 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W-34W, south of 22N,\nmoving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderated isolated\nstrong convection is present from 08N to 13N and between 27W and \n32W. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 18N, \nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nobserved from 08N to 13.5N and between 40W and 49W.\nA Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 19N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection\nare noted from 10N to 13N between 63W and 68W.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, \nmoving westward at around 15 kt. Associated convection is limited\nover Central America, while area Caribbean waters are rain free.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 19N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11.5N26W \nand to 10.5N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N48W to 11N61W. \nOutside of convection associated with tropical wave, scattered \nmoderate convection is occurring from 04N to 16N and east of 25W.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere\nfrom 07.5N to 13.5N between 27W and 51W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA deep layered upper level low over N Florida extends into the far\nNW Caribbean and is supporting scattered clusters of moderate to\nstrong convection across the Florida Panhandle to extreme \nsouthern Mississippi and the nearshore waters, as well as across \ninterior and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. Scattered \nshowers and a few thunderstorms dots the waters offshore of SE \nLouisiana. At the surface, 1019 mb high pressure centered near \n25N88W dominates the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic \nwinds, strongest offshore of the Florida Panhandle and the SW \nGulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the\ncentral Gulf will prevail over the basin through early next week.\nThis weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate\nwinds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the \nbasin. A surface trough over the Yucatan will generate fresh to \nlocally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in \nthe early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the\npeninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on limited \nconvection across the basin.\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered SW of\nBermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting \nfresh to strong trades over the south- central basin between 65W\nand 78W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle \nover the NW basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 8 ft in the \nsouth-central portion, and slight in the NW. Saharan Air across\nmost of the basin is aiding in limiting convection.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force\nfresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-\ncentral Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to\nfresh trades and moderate seas will prevail over the north-\ncentral and eastern Caribbean through the weekend and into early \nnext week, and may increase in coverage over the tropical \nAtlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a tropical \nwave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter \nwinds and slight to moderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Tropical Waves section for information on convection in deep\ntropics. \nA stationary frontal trough enters the tropical Atlantic near \n31N50W and continues southwestward to 27N68W. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted N of 26N between 46W and 57W,\nwhile scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough between \n57W and 68W. The rest of the basin remains under the influence of \nsubtropical ridging, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas,\nexcept for a belt of moderate to fresh trades between 11N and \n21N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE \nwind prevail across the northeastern waters from the Canary \nIslands southward to 19N and E of 26W. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few \nthunderstorms will persist this evening between the northern \nBahamas and Bermuda, and along a trough extending from 29N55W to \n27N70W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mostly \nlight to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N going \ninto early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trades \nare expected south of about 23N, especially off northern \nHispaniola through the period. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203228254463983618", "issued": "2026-08-20T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203228254463983618"}