{"msg": "271\nAXPZ20 KNHC 202137\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of \nthe Tropical Pacific basin along 84W, north of 04N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N E of 87W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, from 05N to 18N, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection stretches from 06.5N to 16.5N between 92W and \n107W, as the wave interacts with a middle level trough extending\noff the SW coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form this weekend or early next week while the system \nmoves west-northwestward or northwestward, remaining well \noffshore of Mexico.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 05N to 17N, moving\nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure associated with\nthis tropical wave near 089.5N113W is producing scattered to \nnumerous moderate to strong convection from 04N to 14N between \n109W and 117W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found within \n120 nm of the N semicircle to the low, with locally rough seas \nthere. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally \nfavorable for development, and a tropical depression could form \nover the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or \nnorthwestward at 5 to 10 mph.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 08.5N87W to 09N105W\nto 1008 mb low pressure near 08.5N113W to 06N124W to 07N140W. \nOther than the convection described above with three tropical \nwaves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 06N to 14N between 87W and 109W, and from 03N to 11N \nbetween 117W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 13N to 17N between 137W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related\nconvection. \nA modest pressure gradient continues across the Gulf of\nTehuantepec area, where the northern portion of a tropical wave \nhas moved W of the Gulf, and is producing strong N to NE gap \nwinds in the Gulf and downstream to near 13N98W. Seas are 5 to 8\nft across that area. Across the remainder of the offshore waters\nof Mexico, typical ridging has been disrupted by a low level \ntrough offshore of Punta Eugenia, along about 118W, resulting in \na rather weak pressure gradient across the region. Midday \nsatellite scatterometer data showed that this current pattern is \nproducing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds, except moderate \nnear Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across the waters away \nfrom the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle southerly winds prevail \nacross the far northern Gulf of California, and become gentle NW \nto N across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas there are 1 to 3 ft. \nAn upper level trough extending offshore of SW Mexico continues \nto support clusters of strong thunderstorms along the coasts and \nnearshore waters of Guerrero and Michoacan, and continue to shift\ngradually westward, ahead of an approaching tropical wave.\nFor the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the \novernight into the early morning hours through the next several \ndays, with seas occasionally building to rough. High pressure \nwill begin to build back modestly across the Baja offshore waters\nFri afternoon through Sat night to produce a more typical \nmoderate to fresh NW wind flow there. Southerly wind flow will \nreturn to the Gulf of California Sat night and become fresh to\nlocally strong Sun. Winds and seas are expected to build across \nthe outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico tonight into \nearly next week in association with a developing area of low \npressure moving westward and just outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nRecent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to E \ngap extending across the Papagayo region to near 90W, where seas\nare 6 to 8 ft. Fresh easterly winds then continue westward and \ndownstream, and S of 12.5N, across the outer offshore waters of \nEl Salvador and Guatemala, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, locally fresh near \nthe border of Peru and Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf \nof Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the \nwaters north of 04N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 04N. Clusters of \nstrong thunderstorms are over the waters south of Panama and \nCosta Rica, due to the passing tropical wave there, described \nabove.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern\nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, \nleading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over \nthe Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \nwaters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least \nearly next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will \ngradually diminish and remain light to gentle through the\nweekend. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of\nPapagayo area through the next several days. Southeasterly swell\nproducing rough seas across the southern waters will subside\nthis evening through Fri.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection \ncurrently present leading to locally higher winds and seas.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja Surf.\nFresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas associated \nwith Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are \nimpacting the waters from 10N to 19N between 138W and 140W. \nModerate to locally fresh trades are found elsewhere from 10N to\n22N between 124W and 140W , where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate \nto locally fresh winds are found south of 06N to the east of 118W\nand south of 04N to the west of 120W. Rough seas over the \nsouthern waters are gradually subsiding, and now cover the \nwaters south of 02.5N east of 120W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \nfeatures described above will bring increasing winds and seas to\narea waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current \nridge in place. Away from these features, little change is \nexpected in marine weather through the next several days, except \nfor the rough seas over the southern waters, which are forecast \nto fully subside by the start of the weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203212865447297026", "issued": "2026-08-20T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203212865447297026"}