{"id": "1203201787942797314", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T21:00:00Z", "msg": "463\nWTPA42 PHFO 202040\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  34\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n \nDespite some renewed convection earlier today, the central structure \nof Lala appears to be slowly deteriorating by dry air intrusion, as \ndepicted on the latest satellite images. The Dvorak final-T and \ncurrent intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC showcase values that \nwarranted the initial intensity to be set a little lower than the \nprevious advisory; now near a possibly generous 80 kt, which is \nstill a bit higher than the latest objective intensity estimates \nfrom UW-CIMSS, which range between 65-75 kt.\n \nLala has shifted to a more northerly track at 355/09 kt, just ahead \nof the mid- to upper-level trough located northwest of the \nhurricane. As the aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, \nbroad ridging building in the Central Pacific just north of the \nhurricane will help shift Lala back to a more northwesterly track by \nthe weekend. The models are in pretty good agreement through the \nforecast period, and little changes were needed to the latest NHC \ntrack which generally follows the HCCA and GDMI trends.\n \nLala will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it continues to \ntraverse the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the \nnext couple of days. The latest intensity guidance suggests small \nnear-term fluctuations are possible within the next 24-36 h as \nstrong upper-level divergence is countered by negative influences of \nmoderate shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast shows little \nchange during this time, generally following HCCA. Thereafter, a \ngradual weakening trend is forecast in line with the multi-model \nintensity consensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs and \nmoderate shear returns by 96 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 24.9N 172.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 26.2N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 29.9N 171.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 30.9N 172.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  23/0600Z 31.8N 173.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 32.6N 175.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 34.1N 176.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 35.7N 178.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}