{"id": "1203201591500406786", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T21:00:00Z", "msg": "450\nWTPA43 PHFO 202039\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   2\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n\nThe convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to \nshow some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level \ncirculation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite \ndata.  The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the \nsubjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, \nrespectively.  Based on these estimates, the initial intensity \nremains 30 kt.  Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance \nwill investigate the cyclone tomorrow.\n \nThe system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, \nand that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so \nuntil the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is \nexpected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few \ndays. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the \nguidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in \nregards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is \nimportant to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, \nand interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, \nshould monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is \nslightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in \nthe way of change.\n \nThe cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for \nthe next couple of days, which should allow for gradual \nstrengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one \nhurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond \nthat time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will \nalso begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity \nforecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with \ngradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a \nlittle lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of \nthe model guidance.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves \nwest-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and \nthis weekend.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is \nexpected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday \nnight, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian \nIslands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain \nand over areas that were affected recently by Lala.  \n\n3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands \nregardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches \nmay be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or \nFriday and residents there should closely monitor the latest \nforecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan \nin place. \n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n \n"}