{"msg": "180\nAXPZ20 KNHC 201614\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is entering eastern portions of the\nTropical Pacific basin along 80W, north of 04N, moving westward \nat 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 77W and 86W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from 05N to 18N, moving \nwestward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate \nto strong convection stretches from 06N to 14.5N between 90W and\n105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, \nand a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while the \nsystem moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore \nof Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone \nformation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 7 \ndays. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas\nwill impact the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 05N to 16N, moving\nwestward at around 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of low pressure \nassociated with this tropical wave near 09.5N111.5W is producing\nscattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 04N to \n12N between 107W and 117W. Fresh to locally strong winds are\nfound within 120 nm of the N semicircle to the low, with locally\nrough seas there. Environmental conditions are forecast to be \nmarginally favorable for gradual development of this system over\nthe weekend as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to\n15 kt.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails on these systems.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 07N81W to 1007 mb \nlow pressure near 09.5N111.5W to 06N130W to beyond 10N140W. \nOther than the convection described above with three tropical \nwaves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 05N to 14.5N between 87W and 107W, and from 03N to 10N\nbetween 117W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 08N to 17N between 136W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related\nconvection. \nA modest pressure gradient continues across the Gulf of\nTehuantepec area, where the northern portion of a tropical wave \nhas just passed by, and is producing strong N to NE gap winds in\nthe Gulf and downstream to near 14N96W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across\nthe area. Across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico,\ntypical ridging has been disrupted by a surface trough from Baja\nCalifornia Norte to the southwest resulting in a rather weak \npressure gradient across the region, and mainly light to gentle \nN to NE winds, except moderate from near Cabo Corrientes up the \ncoast toward the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas are 4 \nto 6 ft across the waters away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and \n1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California. An upper level trough\nextending offshore of SW Mexico continues to support clusters of\nstrong thunderstorms along the coasts and nearshore waters of \nwestern Guerrero and Michoacan, and continue to shift gradually\nwestward. \nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the\novernight into the early morning hours through the next several \ndays, with seas occasionally building to rough. Low pressure \nacross Baja California has shifted eastward to along the coast of\nmainland Mexico, and will sustain NW to W gap winds across much\nof the Gulf of California waters through Fri night before\nsoutherly wind flow returns. High pressure will begin to build\nback modestly across the Baja offshore waters Fri afternoon\nthrough Sat night to produce a more typical moderate to fresh NW\nwind flow there. Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to \nbuild across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by \ntonight into early next week in association with a developing \narea of low pressure moving by just outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nRecent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to E \ngap extending across the papagayo region to near 90W, where seas\nare 6 to 8 ft. Fresh easterly winds then continue downstream, \nand S of 12.5N, across the outer offshore waters of El Salvador \nand Guatemala, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Mainly moderate or \nweaker winds are found elsewhere, locally fresh near the border \nof Peru and Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf of \nGuayaquil. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters \nnorth of 03N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 03N. Clusters of strong \nthunderstorms are over the waters along and south of Panama to \noffshore Costa Rica, due to the passing tropical wave there, \ndescribed above.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern\nGulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, \nleading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over \nthe Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \nwaters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least \nearly next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will \ngradually diminish and remain light to gentle through the\nweekend. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of\nPapagayo area through the next several days. Southeasterly swell\nproducing rough seas across the southern waters will subside\ntoday through Fri.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves \nsection above for information on systems that have the potential\nfor tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection \ncurrently present leading to locally higher winds and seas.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja Surf.\nFresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas associated \nwith newly named Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central \nPacific basin are impacting the waters from 12N to 19N between \n137W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found \nelsewhere from 14N to 23N between 128W and 140W. Moderate to \nlocally fresh winds are found south of 06N to the east of 120W \nand south of 02N to the west of 120W. Rough seas over the \nsouthern waters are gradually subsiding, now over the waters \nsouth of 03N, up to 9 ft south of the Equator and east of 110W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \nfeatures described above will bring some increasing winds and \nseas to area waters south of 25N, as they move south of the \ncurrent ridge in place. Away from these features, little change \nis expected in marine weather through the next several days, \nexcept for the rough seas over the southern waters which are \nforecast to fully subside by the start of the weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203149550123352066", "issued": "2026-08-20T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203149550123352066"}