{"id": "1203133856209698818", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T15:00:00Z", "msg": "303\nWTPA42 PHFO 201455\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  33\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n\nWhile the eye is not presently visible, current satellite \nobservations suggest Lala has slowly reorganized during the early \nmorning hours, with deep convection building in near and south of \nthe center. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak final-T and \ncurrent intensity numbers from HFO and JTWC, the initial intensity \nis set at a possibly generous 85 kt. This is a bit higher than the \nlatest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, which range \nbetween 70-80 kt.\n \nLala continues to maintain a north-northwestward track at 340/08 kt, \nbeginning to feel the impacts of the mid- to upper-level trough just \nnorthwest of the hurricane. It is forecast that the hurricane track \nwill nudge more northerly tomorrow and pick up a bit of speed. As \nthe aforementioned trough becomes absorbed by Lala, broad ridging \nbuilding in the Central Pacific just north of the hurricane will \nhelp shift Lala on a more northwesterly track by the weekend. Many \nmodels, including HCCA and GDMI are in pretty good agreement through \nthe forecast period, with little changes needed to the latest NHC \ntrack.\n \nThe latest model and satellite trends suggest Lala will maintain \nstrength as a strong and powerful hurricane as it nears the \nPapahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. While the \nhurricane will continue to experience moderate to strong \nsouthwesterly shear during the next day or so, upper-level \ndivergence from the aforementioned trough may help counter the \nnegative shear effects. The latest guidance suggests small intensity \nfluctuations could occur in the near term, and the latest NHC \nforecast shows little change during this time. Thereafter, gradual \nweakening is forecast in line with the multi-model intensity \nconsensus as Lala moves over gradually cooling SSTs.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/1500Z 24.2N 172.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 25.3N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 29.0N 171.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 30.3N 172.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  23/0000Z 31.4N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 32.4N 174.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 33.9N 176.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 35.9N 178.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}