{"id": "1203133855776899074", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T15:00:00Z", "msg": "302\nWTPA43 PHFO 201455\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   1\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026\n \nThe system that NHC has been monitoring (invest 90E) over the \ncentral Pacific now has developed a sufficient amount of convective \norganization that has been steadily increasing over the last \nseveral hours. In addition, the low-level circulation has been \ngetting better defined, as evident in satellite data, therefore \nthe system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone.  The \nASCAT pass from last night shows that the circulation is located \nnear the eastern edge of the convection and generally supports an \ninitial intensity of about 30 kt.\n\nThe system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt, \nand that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so \nuntil the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is \nexpected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few \ndays. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the \nguidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in \nregards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is \nimportant to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, \nand interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, \nshould monitor the progress of this system. \n\nThe cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment \nfor the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual \nstrengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one \nhurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond \nthat time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will \nalso begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity \nforecast calls for a peak wind speed of 60 kt this weekend, with \ngradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies near the \nhigh end of the model guidance.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves \nwest-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and \nthis weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location \nand magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the \nlatest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness \nplan in place.  \n\n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is \nexpected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday \nnight, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian \nIslands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce \nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain \nand over areas that were affected recently by Lala.  \n\n3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian \nIslands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system\nWatches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands \ntonight or Friday.\n \n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/1500Z 11.9N 143.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n \n"}