{"id": "1203059919402729475", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T09:00:00Z", "msg": "553\nWTPA42 PHFO 200839\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  32\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Lala has lost organization during\nthe evening hours, with most of the deepest convection shifting\ninto the northern semicircle.  Microwave data also show this change\nin structure, with the mid-level center a bit north of the\nlow-level circulation, presumably due to shear.  Satellite estimates\nhave noticeably fallen recently, and the current intensity is set\nto 90 kt as a consensus of the available values.  A pair of recent \nSAR and ASCAT passes were helpful in expanding the wind radii.\n \nLala has turned north-northwestward as it feels the steering by an\nan approaching mid- to upper-level trough from the northwest.  The\nhurricane should turn northward tomorrow but then move back to the\nnorthwest by Saturday as the trough becomes absorbed by Lala and a\nnew ridge forms over the northwestern Central Pacific, blocking\nany fast exit.  For such a complex pattern, the models are in\npretty good agreement, and only a small northeastward nudge was\nmade to the official forecast after 36 hours.\n \nThe hurricane is expected to remain powerful as it tracks through\nthe Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Thursday.\nAfter moving north of those waters, gradually cooling sea-surface\ntemperatures, and moderate shear is expected to promote slow\nweakening during the next several days.  The absorption of the\nupper-level trough by the weekend should provide an unusual amount\nof instability through cold upper-level temperatures, despite\nwaters at 25C or below.  Additionally, the shear becomes quite low,\nlimiting the potential dry-air entrainment into the center.  These\nfactors suggest it will maintain hurricane strength at quite a high\nlatitude for the Central Pacific.  The new NHC intensity forecast\nis basically just an update of the previous one, adjusted for a\nlower initial wind speed.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/0900Z 23.5N 171.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 24.5N 172.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 26.1N 172.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 28.0N 171.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 29.8N 171.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  22/1800Z 31.0N 173.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 31.9N 174.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 33.4N 176.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 35.4N 178.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}