{"msg": "536\nAXNT20 KNHC 200452\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0452 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA new tropical wave has been introduced into the 00Z analysis. \nThis wave is along 26W, south of 18N. Scattered moderated \nconvection is depicted from 07N to 12N between 24W and 30W. \nA tropical wave is along 37.5W, south of 18N, moving westward at \n10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 07N to 14N and between 30W and 43W.\nA tropical wave is near 58.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at \n10 to 15 kt. Isolated convection is depicted from 12N to 14N\nbetween 55W and 61.5W. \nA tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean along 74W,\nsouth of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection extends northeastward across \nwestern Hispaniola. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends\nsouthwestward to 11N24W and to 10N52W. Beyond convection \ndescribed above with the tropical waves, numerous moderate \nisolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N and east of \n18W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by 1017 mb high \npressure located near 25N87W. This pattern supports a gentle to \nmoderate anticyclonic wind flow across the basin, except for fresh\nto locally strong W winds over the NE Gulf and NE winds west of \nthe Yucatan Peninsula. Slight to moderate seas of generally 3 ft \nor less prevail across the basin. An upper level low center \nacross the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is supporting \nscattered showers and thunderstorms across portions north of Tampa \nthat are shifting westward to the NE Gulf. Another cluster of \nmoderate to strong convection is noted north of 28.5N between 87W \nand 39W. \nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure centered over the\ncentral Gulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast \nperiod. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to \nmoderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of \nthe basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh \nto locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in\nthe early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from \nthe peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nFresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, \nand moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the central \npart of the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to \nmoderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. \nScattered showers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across \nthe SW Caribbean and into coastal portions of southern Nicaragua, \nCosta Rica and western Panama. Shallow moisture, embedded in the \ntrade wind flow ahead of an approaching tropical wave, is \nproducing isolated showers across the Lesser Antilles, south \nof 14N.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force\nfresh to locally near gale-force trades along with rough seas \nacross the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast \nperiod. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail \nover the north-central and eastern Caribbean through the weekend \nand into early next week, perhaps increase in coverage over the \ntropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean starting Sun night as a \ntropical wave moves across those waters. Elsewhere, moderate or \nlighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 1017 mb low pressure near \n32N48.5W to 30N48.5W to a 1017 mb low pressure center located \nnear 29.5N60.5W, then continues as a trough to just east of the \nSE Bahamas near 23.5N70W. Middle level troughing overhead of the \nstationary front is supporting clusters of scattered moderate \nisolated strong showers and thunderstorms S of the front and low \nbetween 47W and 60W. Moderate SW winds prevail south of the front.  \nSeas area 4 to 6 ft within these winds. The remainder of the \nAtlantic is dominated by the Azores High centered near 42N29W, \nthat extends southwestward across 30N and then a narrow ridge \nsouth of the front to near 74W. Under the influence of this \nsystem, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds are occurring S of \n22N E of 40W, and S of 27N W of 40W. However, small areas of \nfresh winds are noted approaching the Lesser Antilles, while \nmoderate to fresh NE winds prevail from 17N to 24N E of 35W. Seas\nacross these areas are 6 to 8 ft. Otherwise, seas are generally \nmoderate E of 63W, and slight to moderate W of 63W. Saharan Air \ncontinues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic N of 13N between \nAfrica and the Lesser Antilles.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front\nwill weaken to a trough tonight into Thu. Elsewhere, a weak \npressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over \nmost of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming weekend \nand into early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh \ntrades are expected south of about 22N, especially off northern \nHispaniola through the period. \n\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1203015332968169475", "issued": "2026-08-20T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1203015332968169475"}