{"id": "1202989813586821123", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-20T03:00:00Z", "msg": "179\nWTPA42 PHFO 200242\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  31\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Wed Aug 19 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Major Hurricane Lala has degraded \nsomewhat this afternoon, with the eye becoming obscured by high \nclouds and slightly warmer cloud top temperatures developing around \nthe center. An earlier AMSR-2 microwave pass indicated that Lala may \nhave undergone an eyewall replacement cycle, with ragged concentric \neyes evident in the imagery. This process likely contributed to the \nrecent weakening, as environmental conditions have not changed much \nsince earlier today. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates \nfrom JTWC and WFO HFO were 6.0/115 kt and 5.5/102 kt, respectively, \nwhile objective estimates ranged from 90-104 kt. Given the degraded \nsatellite presentation, suspected eyewall replacement, and the \nconsiderable spread among intensity estimates, the initial intensity \nis set at 100 kt for this advisory. \n\nLala is moving northwestward at around 9 kt, steered by an \nupper-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough \napproaching from the northwest. A turn toward the north, accompanied \nby a modest increase in forward speed, is expected by tomorrow as \nthe approaching trough weakens the ridge. This general motion is \nforecast through the next 48 h or so, followed by a turn back toward \nthe northwest this weekend as ridging strengthens to the east. \nHowever, there remains considerable spread in the track model \nguidance regarding the timing of this northwestward turn. The latest \nNHC forecast is very close to the previous advisory, and remains \nnear the middle of the track guidance envelope. \n \nThe hurricane is currently moving over very warm sea surface \ntemperatures around 28 C, and Lala is expected to remain a powerful \nhurricane as it tracks toward and beyond the Papahanaumokuakea \nMarine National Monument. After 24 h, increasing wind shear, \ngradually cooler waters, and strengthening upper-level winds are \nexpected to promote slow weakening over the next several days. \nHowever, the wind field is also forecast to expand as Lala interacts \nwith the approaching trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast \nkeeps Lala above hurricane strength through 72 h and lies near the \nmiddle of the forecast intensity guidance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/0300Z 22.8N 171.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 23.7N 172.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 25.2N 172.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 27.0N 171.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 28.8N 171.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  22/1200Z 30.4N 172.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 31.5N 173.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  24/0000Z 33.3N 176.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  25/0000Z 35.2N 178.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}