{"msg": "952\nAXNT20 KNHC 192252\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 27W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 07N to 12N and between 21W and 30W.\nA tropical wave is near 58W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 \nto 15 kt. Convection is isolated along the ITCZ near the wave at \nthis time.\nA tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean along 73W,\nsouth of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection extends northeastward across Hispaniola,\nthe Mona Passage and into the Atlantic N of Puerto Rico, as the \nwave interacts with an upper level trough across this area.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N26W and \nto 10.5N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N51W to NE Venezuela near \n10N62W. Beyond convection described above with the tropical waves, \nscattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N\nto 13.5N between 30W and 43W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by 1019 mb high \npressure located near 27N89.5W. This pattern supports a gentle to\nmoderate anticyclonic wind flow across the basin with slight to \nmoderate seas of generally 3 ft or less. An upper level low center\nacross the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters is supporting\nscattered showers and thunderstorms across large portions of the\ninterior that are shifting eastward toward the Atlantic coast.\nAnother large cluster of moderate to strong convection is across\nmuch of the Florida Panhandle and extends across the nearshore\ncoastal waters between Apalachicola and Mobile Bay. \nFor the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the central \nGulf will prevail over the basin through the forecast period. This \nweak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds\nand slight to locally moderate seas. A diurnally induced surface \ntrough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west \nof the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will \nshift westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough \nmigrates into the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nRecent satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong \nwinds across the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh \nwinds across the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas \nare 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and \nslight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection extends northeastward across Hispaniola,\nthe Mona Passage and into the Atlantic N of Puerto Rico. Scattered\nshowers and a few thunderstorms are occurring across the SW\nCaribbean and into coastal portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa\nRica and western Panama. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade \nwind flow ahead of an approaching tropical wave, is producing \nscattered showers across the Lesser Antilles and SE Caribbean S \nof 16N.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical \nridge north of the basin and relatively lower pressure in \nnorthern South America will generally support fresh to strong \ntrades along with rough seas across the south-central Caribbean \nthrough much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and \nmoderate seas will prevail over the north-central and eastern \nCaribbean through the weekend and into early next week, and \nincrease in coverage over the tropical Atlantic and eastern \nCaribbean starting Sun night as a tropical wave moves across those\nwaters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to \nmoderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from 1018 mb low pressure near 33N48.5W\nto 30N50W to a 1016 mb low pressure center located near 29N61W,\nthen continues as a dissipating frontal trough to just east of \nthe SE Bahamas near 24N73W. Middle level troughing overhead of the\nstationary front is supporting clusters of scattered moderate\nisolated strong showers and thunderstorms within 180 nm S of the\nfront and low between 46W and 62W. Satellite scatterometer data \nshows moderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of\nthe front between 46W and 64W. Seas area 4 to 5 ft within these\nwinds. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores \nHigh centered near 38N30W, that extends southwestward across 30N\nand then a narrow ridge south of the front to near 70W. Under the\ninfluence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate trade winds \nare occurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W. However, \nsmall areas of fresh winds are noted approaching the Lesser\nAntilles, while moderate to fresh NE winds prevail from 18N to \n25N E of 30W. Seas across these areas are 6 to 7 ft. Otherwise, \nseas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of\n70W. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Tropical Atlantic N of\n13N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will begin to \nweaken tonight through Thu, and drift northward as high pressure\nbuilds modestly westward into the Bahamas through Fri. Elsewhere,\na weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle \nwinds over most of the waters north of 23N going into the upcoming\nweekend and into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh \ntrades are expected south of about 22N, especially off the coast\nof Hispaniola throughout the period. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202944607944278019", "issued": "2026-08-19T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202944607944278019"}