{"msg": "287\nAXPZ20 KNHC 192050\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 138W-139W, from 17N \nsouthward, moving westward at around 15 kt. 1007 mb low pressure\nis analyzed near the wave at 10N139W, and has been designated \nInvest EP90. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted \nfrom 08N to 15.5N between 132W and 143W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is elsewhere south of the system from 00N to 05.5N\nbetween 137W and 148W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows\nN to NE winds of 25 to 30 kt occurring in thunderstorms to the\nwest of the low pressure center. This area of active convection \nis showing some signs of improved organization. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for further development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the \nnext day or so as the system moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central \nPacific. This system has a high chance of tropical formation in \nthe next 48 hours. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should \nclosely monitor the progress of this system. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 93W-94W from 03N northward \nto coastal sections of SE Mexico, moving westward at around 15 \nkt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 89W and 100W. An \narea of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred nautical\nmiles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the\nend of the week. Gradual development of this system is likely \nthereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form this \nweekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, \nremaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance \nof tropical development in the next 48 hours. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 109W south of 17N, moving \nwestward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 07N to 15N between 101W and 113W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 138W-139W, and is described \nabove in the special features section.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N91W to 09.5N108W to\n07N128W to low pressure 1007 mb, Invest EP90, near 10N138W to \nbeyond 09.5N140W. Other than the convection described above with\nthree tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 03N to 08.5N E of 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 03N to 13N between 113W and 131W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge\nand low pressure troughing across Baja California has relaxed\ntoday, and is yielding gentle to moderate NW to N winds across \nthe near and offshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, \nwith fresh S to SE winds in the northern Gulf of California. \nMeanwhile, a tight pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec ahead of an approaching tropical wave, and is\nproducing strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf and extending \ndownstream to near 13.5N.596W. Resultant seas of 6 to 8 ft are \npresent there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder \nof the waters between Tehuantepec and Baja Sur. Seas are 4 to 6 \nft across the remainder of these offshore waters, 1 to 3 ft \ninside the Gulf of California, except 4 to 6 ft in northern Gulf\nwhere the fresh winds are occurring. \nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms aloft are occurring\nover the central Gulf of California and across portions of Baja\nSur, associated with another upper level low center shifting \nsouthwestward into the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms are \ndrifting northwestward to near the coast of Tehuantepec and\nOaxaca, as this convection interacts with an upper level trough \nacross that area. \nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and \nnight through the weekend, except likely only reaching fresh\nspeeds Thu night. Seas will occasionally build to rough during \nperiods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja California will\nsustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of California \nwaters, with fresh winds expected across northern portions there \ngradually diminishing this evening through Fri. Winds and seas \nwill diminish modestly across the Baja offshore waters through \nthe end of the week as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, \nwinds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore \nwaters of southwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in\nassociation with a developing area of low pressure, expected to \ndevelop outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nFresh to locally strong easterly gap winds continue across the \nPapagayo region as shown by recent satellite scatterometer data,\nand extend downwind to near 95W. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft with \nthese winds. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the \nmonsoon trough, and moderate south of the monsoon trough, except \nmoderate to fresh south of 05N, highest near the entrance of the\nGulf of Guayaquil. Seas across most of the remainder of the \nwaters north of the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in mixed cross \nequatorial S and SW swell, and 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south \nof 03.5N, highest south through southwest of the Galapagos \nIslands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure \nover Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing\nto strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night\nthrough the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in \nrough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well \ndownwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El \nSalvador and Guatemala through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to\nlocally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and \nacross the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish tonight \nthrough Thu than remain gentle to moderate through the weekend. \nCross- equatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters will \ncontinue to merge with larger S to SE swell dominating the \nsouthern Pacific waters well south of the Galapagos to produce \nrough seas 8 ft and greater south of 02N, and moderate seas \nelsewhere through Thu before the rough seas area subsides.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the \nRevillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds \nare noted from around 09N to 21N between 120W and 140W. Seas are\n5 to 8 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping to \nenhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are \nfound south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across \nthe remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 04N in \nmixed cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft across the \nremainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north- central \nwaters right under the ridging. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection from 08N to 15.5N between 132W and 143W accompanies \nthe tropical wave along 138W-139W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds \nand seas to area waters S of 20N, as they move south of the \ncurrent ridge in place. Expect active thunderstorms and potential\nfor winds to 30 kt with gusts in excess of 35 kt near the\ntropicalwave along 138W-139W this evening and tonight. Away \nfrom these tropical waves, little change is expected in marine \nweather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202920533759885315", "issued": "2026-08-19T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202920533759885315"}