{"id": "1202917741623705603", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-19T21:00:00Z", "msg": "897\nWTPA42 PHFO 192035\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  30\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026\n \nLala has weakened slightly as the eye of the hurricane does not \nappear to be as pronounced as before, and the cloud tops of the deep \nconvection in the eyewall have warmed slightly as well. The most \nrecent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for \nLala were both T5.5/102 kt. The objective intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS range from 99-113 kt. From a blend of this data and the \nlatest satellite trends, the initial intensity has been lowered to \n105 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe cyclone has been moving toward the north-northwest at 315/8 kt. \nHowever, a more gradual turn to the north should be occuring soon as \na ridge that was previously to the north of the hurricane begins to \nweaken due to the approach of a mid- to upper-level trough from the \nnorthern Pacific. The current NHC forecast track does not have many \nchanges from the previous one until around 36 h, where the updated \nforecast lies slightly to the west of the previous one. Once the \nsystem turns to the northwest again, the new track and the old track \nbecome very similar again. The other change to the forecast was that \nthe speed of Lala was increased slightly.\n \nThe current model and satellite trends are indicating that Lala will \ncontinue to weaken as it moves farther north and west away from the \nmain Hawaiian Islands. The current NHC intensity forecast continues \nto maintain the system as a strong and powerful hurricane as it \ntracks toward and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National \nMonument. The wind shear should start to increase more as the \ncyclone moves farther north as the favorable trough interaction \ndecreases. In addition, past 60 h, the hurricane is expected to \nenter a drier environment, that should keep the weakening trend \ngoing. Given these factors, the current NHC intensity forecast shows \na steady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies \nnear the simple and corrected intensity consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/2100Z 22.2N 171.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 24.6N 172.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 26.3N 172.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  22/0600Z 29.8N 172.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 31.1N 173.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 33.1N 175.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  24/1800Z 34.7N 177.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}