{"msg": "684\nAXNT20 KNHC 191647\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1640 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10\nto 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to \n10N and between 27W and 33W.\nA tropical wave is near 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 \nto 15 kt. Convection is limited at this time.\nA tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis\nis along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. \nScattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave\naxis, just south of Dominican Republic.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal,\nsouth of Dakar, and continues westward to 11N30W and to 10N48W. \nThe ITCZ extends from 10N48W to NE Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 12N\nand east of 27W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure\nlocated near 27N90W. This weather pattern supports a gentle to moderate\nanticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas. Locally fresh easterly\nwinds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a thermal trough.\nAn area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is affecting the SW\nand west-central parts of the Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over\nNE Mexico is helping to induce this convective activity.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters\nthrough the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support\nmostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate \nseas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough \nwill generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the \nYucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread \nwestward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates \ninto the SW Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nRecent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds across\nthe south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across\nthe remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 \nft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the\npressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian \nlow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the \noffshore waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, including \nthe Mona Passage. Similar convective activity is affecting parts \nof western Panama and Costa Rica. Shallow moisture, embedded in \nthe trade wind flow, is observed elsewhere producing isolated to \nscattered passing showers.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge\nnorth of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong\neasterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean\nthrough much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and\nmoderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean\ninto the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight\nto moderate seas are expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA stationary front extends from near 31N48W to a 1015 mb low pressure\nlocated near 29N62W. A trough extends from the low center to near the\nSE Bahamas. A band of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms\nis associated with these features. Satellite derived winds data show\nmoderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of the \nstationary front between 48W and 50W, and within about 90 nm south\nof the front between 59W and 62W. The remainder of the Atlantic \nis dominated by the Azores High centered near 40N32W. Under the \ninfluence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are \noccurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W, with the \nexception of moderate to fresh NE winds from 20N to 24N E of 26W. \nSeas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of \n70. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front\nwill weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure\ngradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate,\nacross much of the area north of 22N through the week and into \nthe weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south \nof about 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202873100366217219", "issued": "2026-08-19T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202873100366217219"}