{"msg": "025\nAXPZ20 KNHC 191548\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURE...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 137W, from 17N southward,\nmoving westward at around 15 kt. 1008 mb low pressure is \nanalyzed near the wave at 09.5N136.5W, and has been designated \nInvest EP90. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection\nis noted from 00N to 14.5N between 130W and 146W. This area of \nactive convection is showing some signs of organization. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for further development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nwithin a few days while the system moves generally westward \nacross the western portion of the east Pacific and into the \nCentral Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical \nformation in the next 48 hours.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 92W from 03N northward to \nCentral America, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 15.5N \nbetween 85W and 97W. An area of low pressure is forecast to form\nseveral hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the end of the week. Gradual development \nof this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression is\nexpected to form this weekend while the system moves generally \nwest-northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This\nsystem has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48\nhours. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 108W south of 17N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nfrom 04.5N to 13N between 104W and 114W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 137W, and is described above\nin the special features section.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N74.5W to 08N91W to 09.5N107W\nto 07N126W to 11N136W to low pressure, Invest EP90, near\n09.5N136.5W to beyond 08N140W. Other than the convection \ndescribed above with three tropical waves, scattered moderate\nconvection is noted from 03N to 08.5N E of 84.5W. Scattered \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 15.5N \nbetween 98W and 104W, and from 03N to 14N between 114W and 130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge\nand low pressure troughing across Baja California is yielding \nmoderate NW to N winds across the near and offshore of Baja \nCalifornia north of Punta Eugenia, with fresh S to SE winds in \nthe northern Gulf of California. Meanwhile, a tight pressure \ngradient over the Gulf of Tehuantepec ahead of an approaching\ntropical wave yields strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf and\nextending downstream to near 13N96W. Resultant of 7 to 9 ft are \npresent there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder \nof the waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the \noffshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California, \nexcept 4 to 5 ft in northern Gulf where the fresh winds are\noccurring. \nShowers and thunderstorms occurring overnight across Baja Sur \nand the adjacent waters have nearly ended as the associated upper\nlevel low center is shifting westward into the cooler Pacific \nwaters. Scattered strong thunderstorms are drifting northwestward\nto near the coast of Oaxaca and SE Guerrero, as this convection \ninteracts with an upper level trough across that area. \nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and \nnight through the end of the week. Seas will occasionally build \nto rough during periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja\nCalifornia will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of\nCalifornia waters, with fresh winds expected across northern \nportions there through midday before gradually diminishing \nthrough Fri. Winds and seas will diminish modestly across the \nBaja offshore waters through the end of the week as high pressure\nweakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to build \nacross the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by Fri \ninto the upcoming weekend in association with a developing area \nof low pressure, expected to develop outside of the offshore \nwaters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion overnight satellite scatterometer data, extending \ndownwind to near 92W. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft with these winds.\nWinds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the monsoon \ntrough, and moderate south of the monsoon trough, except fresh \nsouth of 02S, highest near the entrance of the Gulf of Guayaquil.\nSeas across most of the remainder of the waters north of the \nEquator are 4 to 6 ft in mixed cross equatorial S and SW swell, \nand 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south of 01N, highest south\nthrough southwest of the Galapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure \nover Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing\nto strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night\nthrough the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in \nrough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well \ndownwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El \nSalvador and Guatemala through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to\nlocally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and \nacross the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish tonight \nthrough Thu. Cross-quatorial SW swell moving into the regional \nwaters will continue to merge with larger S to SE swell \ndominating the southern Pacific waters well south of the \nGalapagos to produce rough seas 8 ft and greater south of the \nEquator, and moderate seas elsewhere through Thu before the rough\nseas area subsides.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- \nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the \nRevillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds \nare noted from around 10N to 21N between 124W and 140W. Seas are\n6 to 8 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping to \nenhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are \nfound south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across \nthe remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 04N in \nmixed cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft across the \nremainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north- central \nwaters right under the ridging. Scattered to numerous moderate to\nstrong showers and thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave\nalong 137W, and cover the area from 00N to 14.5N between 130W \nand 146W.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds \nand seas to area waters, as they move south of the current ridge\nin place. Away from these waves, little change is expected in \nmarine weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202861517171720195", "issued": "2026-08-19T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202861517171720195"}