{"id": "1202849803328028675", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-19T15:00:00Z", "msg": "302\nWTPA42 PHFO 191449\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  29\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Aug 19 2026\n\nLala continues to be a strong hurricane with a well-defined, \npronounced eye and cold cloud tops centralized around a ring of deep \nconvection. Although in the last several hours, cloud tops have \nwarmed some. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from \nHFO and JTWC for Lala were T6.0/115 kt and T5.5/102 kt, \nrespectively. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range \nbetween 96-114 kt. Using a blend of these estimates and the latest \nsatellite trends, the initial intensity is set to 110 kt for this \nadvisory.  \n \nLala has been maintaining a northwestward motion at 310/8 kt, but is \nforecast to begin a gradual turn to the north by tomorrow as a ridge \noriginally anchored north of the hurricane begins to weaken by an \napproaching mid- to upper-level trough from the northern Pacific. \nThe latest guidance from HCCA and Google DeepMind has a general \nconsensus that Lala will persist tracking northward through the next \ncouple of days and then return to a northwestward heading. Guidance \nspread becomes more divergent by Day 3, particularly in the forward \nspeed. The latest NHC forecast track is a blend of the previous one \nand the GDMI and HCCA corrected consensus aids.\n \nThe latest model and satellite trends suggest that Lala has reached \nits peak intensity and will gradually weaken as it continues to \ntrack north and west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. However, \nthe system will remain a strong and powerful hurricane as it tracks \ntowards and past the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. \nBeyond 60 h, moderate shear will steadily increase and mid-level RH \nvalues begin to decrease. At the same time, the favorable trough \ninteraction and upper-level divergence begin to decrease as well.  \nGiven these factors, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows a \nsteady weakening trend throughout the forecast period and lies near \nthe simple and corrected intensity consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/1500Z 21.3N 170.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 22.2N 171.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 23.6N 171.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 25.0N 172.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 26.9N 171.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  22/0000Z 28.8N 171.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 30.4N 172.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 32.3N 174.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 34.2N 177.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}