{"id": "1202776081067737095", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-19T09:00:00Z", "msg": "015\nWTPA42 PHFO 190834\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  28\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026 \n \nLala is an impressive hurricane tonight with a very clear eye and\ncold cloud tops in the surrounding ring of convection.  Although\nrecent images have shown some weakening of the thunderstorms in the\nsouthwestern quadrant, all of the best intensity estimates\n(HFO, JTWC, DMINT, DPRINT) were near 115 kt at 6z, so the initial\nwind speed is raised to that value.\n \nThe hurricane is moving northwestward at about 8 kt, steered\nprimarily by a mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual\nturn toward the north is expected by Thursday as a mid- to\nupper-level trough weakens the ridge.  Late this week, Lala is\nlikely to turn back toward the north-northwest or northwest as the\ntrough cuts off, and Lala moves around its northeastern periphery.\nThe biggest change to the forecast is a westward adjustment at\nlong range, though not nearly as far west as the latest Google\nDeepMind solution.  There remains considerable spread regarding the\ntiming and location of the eventual turn back towards the\nnorth-northwest or northwest due to the complicated flow regime.\n \nRecent satellite imagery suggests Lala could be at the beginning of\nan eyewall replacement cycle, though there any microwave passes are \ninconclusive.  Regardless, most of the models suggest Lala is near\npeak intensity with warm waters somewhat balancing the moderate\nshear conditions and a dry mid-level environment.  After 24 h, Lala\nis expected to move over gradually cooler waters while interacting\nwith the aforementioned trough, which should keep the hurricane\nweakening.  The long-range forecast is challenging because the\ntrough interaction could allow for the system to keep more tropical\nfeatures than typical at such a high latitude in the central\nPacific, with very cold upper-level temperatures and\nlower shear countering sub 25C waters.  At this point, a gradual\nlessening of the winds is shown through the end of the forecast,\nbut is of low confidence due to the variety of possibilities with\nthe upcoming trough interaction.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/0900Z 20.9N 169.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 21.8N 170.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 23.1N 171.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 24.5N 172.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 26.1N 171.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  21/1800Z 28.1N 171.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 30.1N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z 32.2N 174.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  24/0600Z 34.0N 176.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n"}