{"msg": "697\nAXPZ20 KNHC 190712\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0640 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 89W from 03N northward to \nacross El Salvador and western Honduras and Belize over the\nYucatan Peninsula, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N \nbetween 89W and 93W, and from 04N to 08N between 88W and 91W.\nAn area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred\nnautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico \naround the end of the week. Gradual development of this system is\nlikely thereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form\nthis weekend while the system moves generally west-\nnorthwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 107W south of 17N and well\noff the coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around \n10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 04N to 13N between 99W and 110W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 136W, from 17N southward,\nwell to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, moving \nwestward at around 15 kt. Broad 1009 mb low pressure may be\nevident along the wave at 09N136W, new Invest EP90. Scattered to\nnumerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N \nbetween 131W and 140W. This area of interest is showing some \nsigns of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive \nfor further development of this system, and a tropical depression\nis likely to form within a few days while the system moves \ngenerally westward across the western portion of the east Pacific\nand into the Central Pacific.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over the\nnorthern Colombia coast at 11N74W to 08N93W to 09N116W to\n06N118W to low pressure, new Invest EP90, near 09N136W to \n07N140W. Other than the convection described above with three \ntropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted \nfrom 04N to 09N between 119W and 129W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just west of the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge\nand low pressure troughing across the Gulf of California is \nyielding moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the near and \noffshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, with \nmoderate to fresh SE winds in the northern Gulf of California,\nwith these winds over the area seen by recent Metop-C ASCAT\nscatterometer data. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient over \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec area yields strong to near gale- force \nnortherly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen by the\nsame scatterometer. Resultant rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are\npresent there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder\nof the waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the \noffshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California,\nexcept to 5 ft in Gulf north of 30N where the fresh winds are.\nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and \nnight through the end of the week. Seas will occasionally build \nto rough during periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja\nCalifornia will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of\nCalifornia waters, with fresh to strong winds expected across \nnorthern portions there through this evening before gradually \ndiminishing through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas \nwill diminish modestly across the Baja offshore waters through \nthe end of the week as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, \nwinds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore \nwaters of southwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in\nassociation with a developing area of low pressure, expected to \ndevelop outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion per recent Metop-A ASCAT scatterometer data, likely\nextending downwind to near 11N92W. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft with\nthese winds. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the\nmonsoon trough, and moderate south of the monsoon trough, except\nfresh south of 02S, highest near the entrance of the Gulf of\nGuayaquil. Seas across most of the remainder of the waters north\nof the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial S to SW swell, \nand 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south of the Equator, highest \nsouthwest of the Galapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure \nover Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing\nto strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night\nthrough the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in \nrough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well \ndownwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El \nSalvador and Guatemala through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to\nlocally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and \nacross the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish through Thu. \nCross-quatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters will \ncontinue to merge with larger SE swell dominating the southern \nPacific waters well south of the Galapagos to produce rough seas \n8 ft and greater south of the Equator, and moderate seas \nelsewhere through Thu before the rough seas area subsides.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure north of the waters extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just west of the \nRevillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds \nare noted from near 11N to 21N between 125W and 140W. Seas are 6\nto locally 8 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping\nto enhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are\nfound south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across \nthe remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 04N in\nmixed long period cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft \nacross the remainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north- \ncentral waters right under the ridging.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds \nand seas to area waters, as they move south of the current ridge\nin place. Away from these waves, little change is expected in \nmarine weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202759918206648327", "issued": "2026-08-19T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202759918206648327"}