{"id": "1202709206192291847", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-19T03:00:00Z", "msg": "684\nWTPA42 PHFO 190253\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  27\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Aug 18 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Lala has improved markedly over the \npast several hours, with very cold cloud tops now completely \nsurrounding a clear, symmetric and very warm eye. The latest \nsubjective intensity estimates from WFO HFO and JTWC are 5.0/90 kt \nand 5.5/102 kt, respectively. However, objective intensity estimates \nfrom UW-CIMSS span a considerably wider range of 94-119 kt. Given \nthe rapidly increasing objective intensity estimates and the \ncontinued improvement in Lala's satellite presentation, the initial \nintensity has been set at 110 kt for this advisory. This makes Lala \nthe first major hurricane of the year in the Central Pacific Basin. \n \nLala is moving west-northwestward around 8 kt, steered primarily by \na mid-level ridge centered to the north. A gradual turn toward the \nnorthwest is expected on Wednesday as a mid- to upper-level trough \napproaches the region from the northwest. By Thursday, the trough is \nexpected to weaken the ridge, resulting in a more northward motion. \nLate this week, Lala is likely to turn back toward the \nnorth-northwest as the trough becomes a cut-off low and Lala moves \naround its northeastern periphery. The latest NHC track forecast is \nvery similar to the previous advisory through 96 h. Beyond that \ntime, however, there remains considerable along- and cross-track \nspread regarding the timing and location of the eventual turn back \ntoward the north-northwest. \n\nDespite moderate west-southwesterly wind shear, relatively dry \nmid-level air and unfavorable upper-level winds, Lala has \nbeen rapidly intensifying over fairly warm sea surface \ntemperatures. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that \nthe hurricane's strength may be leveling off for the time \nbeing, some additional strengthening is possible over the next 12 h \nor so.  The forecast peak intensity has been increased to \n115 kt, which is above all available intensity guidance. After 24 \nh, Lala is expected to move over gradually cooler waters while \ncontinuing to encounter moderate west-southwesterly wind shear \nassociated with the trough. During this time, however, the hurricane \nshould move into a more moist environment and experience periods of \nenhanced upper-level divergence which could temporarily offset some \nof the unfavorable conditions. The latest NHC forecast therefore \ncalls for only slow weakening beyond 24 h, followed by more steady \nweakening after 72 h as Lala moves over progressively cooler \nwaters. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/0300Z 20.7N 168.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 21.3N 169.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 22.5N 171.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 23.9N 171.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 25.4N 171.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  21/1200Z 26.9N 171.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 28.7N 171.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 31.8N 172.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  24/0000Z 34.0N 174.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}