{"msg": "193\nAXPZ20 KNHC 190227\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0150 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 88W from 02N northward to\nacross eastern El Salvador and western Honduras and into the \nwestern Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 20 kt. \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N\nto 11.5N between 84W and 89W. An area of low pressure is forecast\no form several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the \ncoast of southern Mexico around the end of the week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form this weekend while the system \nmoves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of \nMexico.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 106W south of 17N off the\ncoast of southwestern Mexico, moving quickly westward at around \n25 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection\nis noted from 06N to 12N between 99W and 106W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 106W and \n112W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 134W, from 16N southward,\nwell to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 120W and 140W.\nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form towards the end of the week or over the weekend while the\nsystem moves generally westward across the western portion of \nthe east Pacific and into the Central Pacific.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia at 09N75W to 08N104W to 05N119W to 09N140W. \nOther than the convection described above with three tropical \nwaves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 11N to 15N between 91W and 103W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just west of the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge\nand low pressure troughing across the Gulf of California is \nyielding moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the near and \noffshore of Baja California north of Punta Eugenia, with \nmoderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of\nTehuantepec area yields strong to near gale-force northerly gap \nwinds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and model guidance shows winds \nvery close to minimal gale-force tonight so occasional gusts \ncannot be ruled out. Resultant rough seas are there. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are \n4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters, and 1 to \n3 ft inside the Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and \nnight through the end of the week, near gale-force with\noccasional gusts to gale tonight. Seas will occasionally build \nto rough during periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja\nCalifornia will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of\nCalifornia waters, with fresh to strong winds expected across \nnorthern portions there through Wed before gradually diminishing \nthrough the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will diminish \nmodestly across the Baja offshore waters through the end of the \nweek as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas are \nexpected to build across the outer offshore waters of \nsouthwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in \nassociation with a developing area of low pressure, expected to \ndevelop outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nRefer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any\nconvection.\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo \nregion this evening and extend downwind to near 90W. Seas there \nare 5 to 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of\nthe monsoon trough, and moderate to locally fresh south of the\nmonsoon trough. Seas across most of the remainder of the waters \nnorth of the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial S to SW \nswell, and 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south of the Equator,\nhighest southwest of the Galapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure \nover Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing\nto strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night\nthrough the rest of the week and into the weekend, resulting in \nrough seas. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of \nPapagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and\nGuatemala at times. Moderate to fresh southerly winds south of \nthe monsoon trough and across the Galapagos waters will gradually\ndiminish through Thu. Moderate cross-equatorial SW swell moving \ninto the regional waters will continue to merge with larger SE \nswell dominating the southern Pacific waters well south of the \nGalapagos to produce rough seas 8 ft and greater S of 01N, and \nmoderate seas elsewhere through Thu before subsiding.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure north of the waters extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just west of the \nRevillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds \nare noted from near 10N to 21N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6\nto 9 ft across these waters with a tropical wave helping to\nenhance conditions there. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are\nfound south of 05N, with winds mainly moderate or weaker across\nthe remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of 05N in\nmixed long period cross equatorial swell, and mainly 5 to 7 ft\nacross the remainder of the waters, slightly lower in the north-\ncentral waters right under the ridging.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds \nand seas to area waters, as they move south of the current ridge\nin place. Away from these waves, little change is expected in \nmarine weather through the week and into the upcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202704034652684295", "issued": "2026-08-19T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202704034652684295"}