{"msg": "390\nAXNT20 KNHC 182328\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26N, south \nof 17N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection\nis about the wave from 07N to 13N between 23W and 30W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W, south of \n18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is \nassociated with this wave at this time.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 65W, south \nof 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is observed over Venezuela from 03N to 10.5N between \n60W and 67W.\n\nA western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 86W, south \nof 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted, mostly over land, from 09N to 16N between 80W\nand 87W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nTh monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N33W to 11N43W.\nThe ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 14N and east of\n22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N\nbetween 30W and 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted\nfrom 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nWeak high pressure centered across the Gulf waters south of the\nmouth of the Mississippi River supports moderate W-NW winds across\nthe NE Gulf, and mainly moderate NE to E winds across the \nsouthern Gulf. Slight seas to 3 ft dominate the basin. An upper \nlevel low across the NW Gulf of combining with a low level wind \nsurge moving across the western Bay of Campeche to produce \nsquattered moderate convection there. Meanwhile, scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate to strong afternoon convection has \nfired up across the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and \nthe adjacent Gulf waters, and is gradually shifting westward.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf \nwaters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. A weak \npressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds \nacross much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will \ngenerate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the \nYucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread \nwestward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates \ninto the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the\nforecast period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe subtropical ridge recently north of the Caribbean has shifted\neastward as a frontal system has moved southward of 30N and become\nstationary along about 27N, from east of the Bahamas into the\ncentral Atlantic. The remnants of the ridge extend from the\ncentral Atlantic to N of Puerto Rico along 22N. This weakened\npressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade \nwinds and seas of 5-8 ft from 68W into Central America, with light\nto gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere.\nThunderstorms area active across the coastal waters and inland\nfrom Costa Rica to NE Honduras, behind a tropical wave.\nFor the forecast, central Atlantic high pressure will begin to\nbuild westward and into the Bahamas tonight through Fri. The \npressure gradient between this ridge N of the basin and the \nColombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough \nseas offshore of Colombia tonight, then expand across much of the\nsouth- central Caribbean through the remainder of the forecast \nperiod. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in\nthe north- central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. \nElsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas \nare expected. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front enters the local waters near 31N50W and extends\nsouthwestward to a 1015 mb low center near 28N64.5W then continues\nto near 27N72W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted along within 150 nm S and SE of the front and low. Moderate\nto locally fresh SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of\nthe front to 24N between 44W and 70W. The remainder of the \ntropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered on a 1027\nmb high near 40W32W, that extends southwestward to just north of\nthe NE Caribbean. Trade winds across the Atlantic S of 22N and W \nof 30W are moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, \nfresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far \neastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara.\nSaharan Air continues to dominate the Atlantic basin N of 15N and\neast of the Caribbean, as well as the southern Bahamas, NW\nCaribbean and into the SE Gulf of America.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken\ninto a trough tonight and gradually dissipate as it lifts\nnorthward through Thu. Central Atlantic high pressure will then\nbuild westward into the area. A weak pressure gradient will \nsupport mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across \nmuch of the area N of 22N through the week and into the weekend. \nModerate to locally fresh easterly trade winds can be expected S \nof 22N.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202668831198150663", "issued": "2026-08-18T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202668831198150663"}