{"msg": "115\nAXPZ20 KNHC 182132\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 86W from 03N northward and \ninto the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 15 kt.\nScattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 03.5N to 16N between 81W and 90W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 03N to 17N, moving\nwestward at around 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to\nstrong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14N between 99W and  \n109W. An area of low pressure associated with this tropical wave is\nforecast to form several hundred miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the end of the week. Gradual development \nof this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression is\nexpected to form this weekend while the system moves west- \nnorthwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has\na low chance of tropical formation during the next 48 hours and a\nhigh chance during the next 7 days.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 133W, from 17N southward to \n01N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate\nto strong convection is noted from 00N to 14N between 128W and \n140W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \ntowards the end of the week or over the weekend while the system \nmoves generally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific and into the central Pacific. This system has a low \nchance of tropical formation during the next 48 hours and a\nmedium chance during the next 7 days.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 09N95W. The ITCZ \nextends from 09N95.5W to 09.5N103W, then resumes from 08.5N105W \nto 06.5N114W to 10.5N131W, then resumes near 09.5N134W to beyond\n09N140W. Other than the convection described above with three \ntropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 10N to 14N between 90W and 98W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 02.5N to 13N between 109W and 125W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nHigh pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south-\nsoutheastward into the regional waters to just west of the\nRevillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge\nand low pressure across Baja California is yielding moderate to \nfresh NW to N winds across the near and offshore of Baja \nCalifornia N of Punta Abreojos. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds \nprevail across central and northern portions of the Gulf of \nCalifornia, while winds are variable across the remainder of the \nGulf. Upper level low pressure across Baja Sur and the adjacent\nPacific waters to support strong thunderstorms shifting \nsouthward and away from Baja Sur and across Las Tres Marias,\ncoastal portions of Jalisco, and the adjacent waters to 20N. \nSeas are 4 to 6 ft across the Baja offshore waters, 3 to 5 ft\nnorthern Gulf of California, and 2 to 3 ft inside south and \ncentral portions of the Gulf.\nFurther southeast, strong N to NE gap winds continue to gradually\ndiminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and extend downwind to\nnear 12N97.5W. Seas there have subsided to 7 to 9 ft in recent\nhours. Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec, winds\nare light to gentle with moderate seas. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms trailing behind a tropical wave along 103W prevail\nsouth and southwest of Tehuantepec, across the offshore waters. \nFor the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and\nnight through the end of the week. Seas will occasionally build \nto rough during periods of strong winds. Low pressure across Baja\nCalifornia will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of\nCalifornia waters, with fresh to strong winds expected across\nnorthern portions there through Wed before gradually diminishing\nthrough the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will diminish\nmodestly across the Baja offshore waters through the end of the\nweek as high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, winds and seas are\nexpected to build across the outer offshore waters of \nsouthwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in \nassociation with a developing area of low pressure, expected to\ndevelop outside of the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region \nthis afternoon and extend downwind to near 90W. Seas there are 5\nto 7 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere N of 04N, and \nmoderate to fresh south of 04N to the Galapagos Islands. Seas\nacross most of the area waters are 4 to 6 ft in cross equatorial\nS to SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft south through southwest of the \nGalapagos Islands, where SE and SW swell are merging.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure \nover Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing\nto strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night\nthrough the rest of the week, resulting in rough seas. Moderate \nto fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact \nthe outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala at times. \nModerate to fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and\nacross the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish through Thu.\nModerate cross-equatorial SW swell moving into the regional \nwaters today will continue to merge with large SE swell \ndominating the southern Pacific waters well south of the \nGalapagos to produce rough seas 8 ft and greater S of 01N, and \nmoderate seas elsewhere through Thu, then quickly subside.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\n1031 mb high pressure is centered across the NE Pacific near\n147W, and extends a ridge south-southeastward into the regional\nwaters to just W of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to \nlocally fresh NE to E winds are noted from near 10N to 26N \nbetween 120W and 135W as noted by recent scatterometer data. The \nstrongest winds to near 25 kt, and highest seas to 8 ft are \noccurring N of 10N near the tropical wave at 133W. Farther east, \nfresh winds and seas near 8 ft are from 08N to 12N between 101W \nand 105W, and are associated with the tropical wave at 103W. A \nlarge fetch of strong SE winds across the SE Pacific well south \nthrough southwest of the Galapagos has generated large SE swell \nthat is reaching the equatorial waters between 90W and 130W, \nwhere SE winds are moderate and seas are 8 to 9 ft. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, with \nseas of 4 to 7 ft.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described above will bring some increasing winds \nand seas to area waters, as they move south of the current ridge\nin place. Away from these waves, little change is expected in \nmarine weather through the week, with conditions a bit more \ntranquil across the open waters by the upcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202645936930947079", "issued": "2026-08-18T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202645936930947079"}