{"id": "1202635312446701575", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-18T21:00:00Z", "msg": "481\nWTPA42 PHFO 182038\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  26\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026\n \nLala has continued to become better organized since the previous \nadvisory, with the eyewall cloud tops continuing to cool and the \neye becoming warmer and more distinct. The various satellite \nintensity estimates continue to have a large spread from 61 to 94 \nkt, but they have all increased over the past six hours.  Based on \nthe previous advisory and current trends, the initial intensity is \nincreased to 90 kt.\n \nThe initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt.  There is little\nchange in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory.\nLala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 12-24 \nh as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h,\nthe cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level\ntrough to the northwest breaks down the ridge.  From 72-120 h, a\nturn back toward the northwest is likely as the trough becomes a \ncut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast side. The \nguidance is in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, \nalthough there is still cross-track spread on when and where the \nvarious turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar to the \nprevious track and follows a cluster of models that includes the \nHFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble \nmean (GDMI).\n\nIn the short term, it is unclear how much more Lala can strengthen \nsince the hurricane is experiencing 15-20 kt of westerly shear and \nis embedded in a dry mid-level air mass. Based on the guidance \ntrends, the intensity forecast shows 12 h more strengthening and a \npeak intensity of 100 kt, which is at the upper edge of the \nguidance. In the longer term, the large-scale models forecast the \nshear to persist for at least the next three days as the hurricane \ninteracts with aforementioned upper-level trough. The shear gets \nstrong enough so that the hurricane should weaken some for 24-72 h, \nalthough during this time Lala should reach a more moist \nenvironment and find periods of strong upper-level divergence caused \nby the trough. Overall, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay \nfrom 24-72 h, and the new forecast follows this.  Sea surface \ntemperatures decrease along the forecast track after 72 h, and this \nshould cause continued gradual weakening even though the shear is \nforecast to decrease. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/2100Z 20.4N 168.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 20.8N 169.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 21.9N 170.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 23.2N 171.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 24.5N 171.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  21/0600Z 26.1N 171.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 28.0N 170.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 31.2N 171.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 33.6N 173.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}