{"msg": "371\nAXPZ20 KNHC 181608\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: N to NE gap winds continue to\ngradually diminish across and downstream of the Gulf of\nTehuantepec this morning, the pressure gradient is relaxing in \nthe wake of a departing tropical wave along 102W. Winds have\ndiminished below gale-force this morning, and the gale warning\nhas been allowed to expire. Seas across the area are estimated \nat 8 to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish further throughout \nthe day, and then continue to pulse to strong speeds at night for\nthe next few days. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas \nForecast available at website:\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 83W from 03N northward and \ninto the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 20 kt. \nScattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 03.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 102W from 03N to 16N, moving\nwestward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 96.5W AND 106W. An \narea of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred nautical\nmiles south of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of \nthe week. Gradual development of this system is likely \nthereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form this \nweekend while the system moves west- northwestward, remaining \nwell offshore of Mexico.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 130W from 17N southward to \nnear the Equator, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between \n122W and 133W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression \ncould form towards the end of the week or over the weekend while \nthe system moves generally westward across the western portion of\nthe east Pacific and into the central Pacific.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10.5N76W to 08N95W. The ITCZ \nextends from 10N98W to 06.5N114W to 10N128W, then resumes near\n10N131W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection described \nabove with three tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is noted from 08.5N to 12.5N between 86W and\n96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N \nto 12N between 134W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nThe Gale Warning in effect overnight for the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nhas expired. Winds and seas across this area will slowly improve\nthroughout the day. \nPlease refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information\non a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development\noffshore Mexico this upcoming weekend.\nModerate to fresh NW to N winds continue near and offshore of \nBaja California from Punta Abreojos. Fresh to strong SE to S \nwinds prevail across the northern Gulf of California, while winds\nare variable across the remainder of the Gulf. Upper level low \npressure along the south half of the Baja Peninsula continues to \nsupport strong thunderstorms shifting southward across Baja Sur \nand the adjacent waters to 21N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the \nBaja offshore waters, and 2 to 4 ft inside the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to \nfresh pulses then starting Thu. Seas will occasionally build to \nrough with the fresh to strong or stronger winds. A surge of \nstrong S winds will continue from the central Gulf of California\ninto northern portions through Wed. Thunderstorms are expected to\nremain active across Baja Sur and the adjacent Gulf and Pacific\nwaters through Wed morning. Winds and seas are expected to build\nacross the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by the \nend of the week into the upcoming weekend in association with a \ndeveloping area of low pressure beyond the offshore waters.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh easterly gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo region\nthis morning and extend downwind to near 90W. Seas there are 6 to\n7 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to\nfresh south of the monsoon trough near the Galapagos Islands. \nSeas are 4 to 7 ft in long- period S to SW swell, except 7 to 9 \nft south through southwest of the Galapagos Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to pulsing strong to near gale-froce \nnortheast to east gap winds over the Papagayo region through Thu,\nwith resultant rough seas, then moderate to fresh winds \nthereafter. Moderate to fresh associated winds will extend well \ndownwind across the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and \nGuatemala at times. Moderate to fresh southerly winds south of \nthe monsoon trough will diminish later this morning. Large \nsoutherly swell moving into the waters from Ecuador to the \nGalapagos Islands today will propagate into the remaining\nregional waters through Thu, then quickly subside. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on two tropical\nwaves that have potential for tropical development later this \nweek and into the upcoming weekend.\nModerate to fresh E winds are noted from near 10N to 24N between\n122W and 137W as seen by overnight scatterometer data, and is \nassociated with the tropical wave at 130W. Fresh to locally \nstrong winds and seas of around 8 ft are from 09N to 11N between \n98W and 103W, and are associated with the tropical wave at 102W.\nModerate to fresh winds and rough seas are also found south of \n04N between 90W and 140W. Rough seas to 9 ft are south of 04N \nbetween 88W and 128W in SE to S swell, except in the lee of the \nGalapagos Islands. Winds are moderate or weaker across the \nremainder of the open waters, with seas of 4 to 7 ft.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the \ntropical waves described in the above section will bring some \nincreasing winds and seas to area waters. Away from these waves, \nlittle change is expected in marine weather through the week,\nwith conditions a bit more tranquil across the open waters by the\nupcoming weekend.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202582202263928839", "issued": "2026-08-18T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202582202263928839"}