{"id": "1202564585615163399", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-18T15:00:00Z", "msg": "377\nWTPA42 PHFO 181438\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  25\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026\n\nLala has become a bit better organized during the past couple of \nhours. While the eye remains ragged and cloud filled, the eyewall \nconvection has become more vigorous and more symmetric. The various \nsatellite intensity estimates have an unusually large spread from \n49 to 77 kt, but they are trending upward. The initial intensity is \nincreased to 75 kt based on the recent increase in organization.\n\nThe initial motion remains westward or 275/8 kt.  There is little \nchange in the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. \nLala should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 24 h or \nso as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the north. From 24-72 h, \nthe cyclone should make a northward turn as a mid- to upper-level \ntrough to the northwest breaks down the ridge.  From 72-120 h, a \nturn back toward the northwest is likely as the aforementioned \ntrough becomes a cut-off low with Lala moving around the northeast \nside of this system. The guidance is in reasonably good agreement \nwith this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread on \nwhen the various turns will occur. The new forecast track is similar \nto the previous track and follows a cluster of models that includes \nthe HFIP Corrected consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind Ensemble \nmean (GDMI).\n \nLala is strengthening despite being in a marginal shear environment \nand being embedded in a dry mid-level environment.  The large-scale \nmodels forecast the shear to persist for at least the next three \ndays as the hurricane interacts with the upper-level trough. While \nthe shear should at least slow the strengthening, Lala is forecast \nto reach a more moist environment, and it may find periods with \nstrong upper-level divergence due to a favorable interaction with \nthe trough. The intensity forecast will show continued strengthening \nfor 24-36 h, and since this part of the forecast is in the middle of \nthe intensity guidance envelope it is possible Lala could get \nstronger than what is shown here.  Sea surface temperatures start \ndecreasing along the forecast track after 72 h, and this should lead \nto a gradual weakening during that time.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/1500Z 20.5N 167.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 20.8N 168.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 21.5N 169.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 22.7N 171.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 24.0N 171.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  21/0000Z 25.4N 171.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 27.2N 171.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 31.3N 170.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 34.0N 172.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}