{"id": "1202497383546191879", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-18T09:00:00Z", "msg": "039\nWTPA42 PHFO 180856\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  24\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Lala has continued to become better \norganized, with an eye emerging in infrared satellite imagery around \n06Z.  Since that time, the eye has opened and closed a couple times \nas Lala attempts to become better organized.  A very recent GPMI \nmicrowave pass also indicates that the eye is becoming better \norganized. Lala appears to be strengthening, despite being embedded \nin an environment of 10-15 kt westerly vertical wind shear and a dry \nmid-level troposphere.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are a \nconsensus 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and JTWC. Recent SATCON, DPRINT and \nDMINT intensity estimates have been ebbing and flowing in the 62-76 \nkt range.  Given these estimates, the initial intensity has been \nraised to 70 kt, making Lala a hurricane again.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is westward, or 275/9 kt.  A gradual \nturn toward the northwest is expected over the next 36 h as a narrow \nridge north of Lala shifts eastward and an upper-level trough \napproaches the hurricane from the northwest.  By Thursday, that \ntrough will cause Lala to turn northward.  This forecast brings Lala \ntoward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on \nThursday and Thursday night, and watches will likely be required for \nparts of that area on Tuesday morning.  The latest NHC track \nforecast is similar to the previous one through 36 h, but then \nfaster toward the north from 48-120 h.  The NHC track forecast is \nnear the Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) and the Simple \nConsensus aid (TVCN).  The confidence is the track forecast is high \nthrough 48 h, but there is significant spread in the guidance from \n72-120 h in both the along-track and cross-track directions.\n \nLala has been able to strengthen by 20 kt over the past 18-24 h \ndespite a dry mid-level environment and 10-15 kt of westerly \nvertical wind shear.  All of the models indicate continued \nstrengthening over the next 24 h despite a slight increase in wind \nshear to the 15-20 kt range by 12-24 h.  The NHC intensity forecast \nis between the middle and high end of the guidance during this \nperiod.  The NHC forecast peak intensity was increased slightly to \n85 kt during hour 24-48, similar to an average of the hurricane \nregional models.  Thereafter, most models keep Lala a hurricane \nthrough at least day 4 or 5.  Although SHIPS guidance shows \nincreasing vertical wind shear in the 60-96 h period, the shear \nvector should be fairly similar to the direction of motion by that \ntime, limiting the shear's negative influence.  Furthermore, the \nposition of the aforementioned upper-level trough relative to Lala \ncould help enhance upper-level divergence and outflow over the \nhurricane.  These factors lead to a complicated intensity forecast \naround the 60-96 h time frame.  The NHC forecast is near the middle \nof the guidance envelope during that time.  By day 5, Lala will \nlikely be approaching the 26C sea-surface temperature isotherm as it \ngains latitude, leading to weakening by that point.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/0900Z 20.4N 166.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 20.6N 167.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 21.1N 169.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 22.1N 170.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 23.3N 171.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  20/1800Z 24.6N 172.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 26.0N 171.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 30.2N 170.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 33.3N 172.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}