{"id": "1202425075566575623", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-18T03:00:00Z", "msg": "110\nWTPA42 PHFO 180249\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  23\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Mon Aug 17 2026\n \nThe visible and infrared satellite presentation of Lala has improved \nover the past several hours, with convection becoming increasingly \norganized around the center of the storm. A recent AMSR-2 microwave \npass revealed a well-defined core with a convective band wrapping \ncompletely around the center. However, some westerly shear is \nevident, with the mid-level center displaced slightly to the east \nof the low-level center. Objective Dvorak intensity estimates from \nUW-CIMSS span a wide range of 41-63 kt, though these estimates have \nsteadily increased over the past several hours. Subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimates from JTWC and WFO HFO were 3.5/55 kt and 4.0/65 \nkt, respectively. Given the improved satellite presentation and the \nupward trend in intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set at \n60 kt for this advisory. \n \nThe tropical storm is moving westward at around 10 kt, steered by a \nridge of high pressure to the north, and this general motion is \nexpected to continue through Tuesday. By midweek, an upper-level \ntrough is forecast to approach the storm from the northwest, \ninducing a turn toward the northwest then north. This forecast \nbrings Lala toward portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National \nMonument on Thursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required \nfor parts of that area on Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is \nvery close to the previous forecast through 96 h, after which it has \nbeen accelerated, and remains near the middle of the track forecast \nconsensus. \n\nDespite a relatively dry mid-level environment and moderate westerly \nwind shear, warm sea surface temperature and a well-established \ninner core are allowing for Lala to strengthen. All available model \nguidance support additional strengthening over the next 36 h, with \nthe hurricane regional models and Google DeepMind (GDM) showing the \nmost aggressive intensification. In addition, the ECMWF- and \nGFS-based SHIPS guidance indicate that rapid intensification is \npossible during this period. The forecast peak intensity has \ntherefore been raised to 80 kt, which lies between the stronger \nregional hurricane models and GDM solution and the weaker \nstatistical-dynamical model guidance. The longer-range intensity \nforecast remains more uncertain, as the global models suggest some \npotential for positive interaction with an upper-level trough later \nthis week, followed by slow weakening as strong southwesterly shear \ndevelops. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  18/0300Z 20.3N 165.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 20.4N 166.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 20.6N 168.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 21.3N 170.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 22.3N 171.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 60H  20/1200Z 23.5N 172.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 24.8N 172.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 27.7N 171.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 31.3N 170.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}