{"msg": "940\nAXPZ20 KNHC 172106\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 02N near the border\nof Ecuador and Colombia northward to across eastern Panama near\nthe border with Colombia, and continuing into the Caribbean Sea,\nmoving westward around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and\nisolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W\nand 87W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from just offshore \nOaxaca southward to the Equator, moving westward at around 20 \nkt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N \nbetween 93W and 102W. An area of low pressure is expected to form\nin association with this wave near the ned of this week. Gradual\ndevelop of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is\nlikely to form by this weekend as the low moves west-northwest\nwhile remaining well offshore Mexico. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 16N southward,\nmoving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection \nis noted east of this wave from 07N to 11N between 115W and \n125W. A broad area of low pressure could form in association \nwith this wave well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands\ntoward the end of the week or over the weekend as the system\nmoves generally westward across the western portion of the east\nPacific and into the central Pacific.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends 10N73W to 11N85W to 07N102W. The ITCZ\nextends from 07N102W to 08N122W, then resumes west of a tropical\nwave from 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N \nbetween 87W and 93W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave that has a potential for tropical development offshore\nMexico at the end of this week.\nStrong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of\nBaja California, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining open \nPacific offshore waters, except to 7 ft near Punta Eugenia, and 1\nto 3 ft over the Gulf of California. A surface trough extending\nsoutheastward to offshore Cabo Corrientes is inducing numerous\nmoderate to strong convection from 19N to 23N E of 110W. Locally\nhigher winds and seas can be expected with these thunderstorms. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to fresh\npulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force at \ntimes tonight and Tue night, with resultant rough seas. A surge \nof strong SE winds may move from N of Cabo Corrientes into the \nsouthern Gulf of California tonight into early Tue, associated \nwith a complex of convection.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave producing heavy rainfall over portions of Colombia. \nWinds are moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough, and \nmoderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft\nin long-period southwest swell, except to 8 ft southwest of the \nGalapagos Islands. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to pulsing strong to near gale-froce \nnortheast to east gap winds over the Papagayo region, with \nresultant rough seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will \npulse south of the monsoon trough through tonight. Large \nsoutherly swell will impact waters mainly from Ecuador to the \nGalapagos Islands through Wed night, largest expected through Tue\nnight.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the western basin that has potential for tropical\ndevelopment late this week.\nModerate to fresh E winds are noted from 17N to 24N, W of 130W,\nand 09N to 24N between 117W to 130W, the latter being associated\nwith the aforementioned tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds\nand rough seas are also found south of the monsoon trough. Winds\nare moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, \nwith seas of 4 to 7 ft.\nFor the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the\ntropical waves described in the above section will bring some\nincreasing winds and seas to area waters. Away from these waves,\nlittle change is expected in marine weather through the week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202357656747999239", "issued": "2026-08-17T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202357656747999239"}