{"id": "1202352718045872135", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-17T21:00:00Z", "msg": "148\nWTPA42 PHFO 172041\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  22\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026\n \nLala is a compact tropical storm. A large, curved convective band\nwraps most of the way around the system in visible and infrared\nsatellite images. Objective UW-CIMSS D-MINT intensity estimates have\nincreased this morning based on recent SSMIS passive microwave data\nthat showed improved mid-level structure. In addition, HFO and JTWC\nrecently provided consensus T3.5 Dvorak intensity estimates. Based\non these data, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt.\n \nLala is moving just south of due west (260/9 kt). A subtropical\nridge to the north of Lala will keep the storm on a westward heading\nfor the next 12-24 h. Then, a shortwave trough is forecast to move\nover the northern Pacific and induce a weakness in the steering\nridge by midweek. This should cause Lala to turn northwestward and\nthen northward later this week. This forecast brings Lala toward\nportions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on\nThursday and Thursday night, and watches may be required for parts\nof that area on Tuesday. Track forecast confidence is higher than\nyesterday since the track models are in better agreement on the\nnorthward turn, though there is still some spread in how abrupt that\nturn will be. Overall, the updated NHC forecast is slightly faster,\nbut otherwise very similar to the previous prediction.\n \nThe small size of Lala could make it prone to faster intensity\nchanges in either direction. The storm is currently moving within a\nfairly dry mid-level environment and experiencing moderate westerly\nshear. While these conditions are not ideal for strengthening, a\nsolidified inner core could allow Lala to resist some of these\ninhibiting environmental factors and intensify over warm waters\n(27-28 deg C). The hurricane regional models and Google Deep Mind\n(GDMI) remain most aggressive with near-term strengthening. The NHC\nintensity forecast has been adjusted upward slightly following the\nsimple consensus (IVCN) and shows Lala becoming a hurricane again by\nlate Tuesday. The longer-range forecast is tricky, as the global\nmodels suggest some potential for positive trough interaction later\nthis week before strong southwesterly shear induces weakening. While\na secondary intensity peak is not shown in the official forecast,\nsome intensification in 3-4 days cannot be ruled out.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/2100Z 20.4N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 20.4N 165.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 20.5N 167.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 20.9N 169.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 21.7N 170.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  20/0600Z 22.8N 171.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 24.1N 172.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 26.5N 171.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 30.5N 170.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}