{"msg": "039\nAXNT20 KNHC 171614\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1600 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern tropical wave has its axis along south of 19N. It is \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \nobserved from 07N to 18N between 13W and 25W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending\nfrom 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection is from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W.\nAnother central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with\nits axis near 56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. \nScattered moderate to isolated convection is within 240 nm west of\nthe wave from 12N to 15N.\nA Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N.\nIt is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, \nCosta Rica and Panama offshore waters. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 18N16W and \ncontinues southwestward to 12N20W and to 12N30W to 12N35W to \n10N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 12N50W and to 13N57W.\nNo significant convection is evident aside from the convection \ndiscussed in the Tropical Waves section above.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting light to\ngentle variable winds and slight seas north of 24N. Moderate \nnortheast to east winds are over the central and eastern Bay of \nCampeche due to a westward moving trough that is now in the \ncentral Bay of Campeche. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters \nwhere these winds are present. Moderate northeast to east winds\nare over the lower Straits of Florida and the approaches to the \nYucatan Channel.\nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf \nwaters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support \nmostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A \ndiurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to \noccasionally strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula early \neach evening. These winds will spread westward away from the \nYucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight \nto moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the western\nCaribbean Sea from 15N to 18N west of 82W to just inland Honduras \nand Nicaragua Similar convection is confined to the southwestern\nCaribbean south of 12N between 74W and 81W, including most of\nPanama and just inland northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong trades\ncover most of the central portion of the basin and the eastern\nportion of the western portion. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these\ntrades. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are exist elsewhere \nalong with moderate seas. Fresh northeast winds are in the\nWindward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder \nof the western portion of the sea, except for fresh east winds in\nthe lee side of Cuba.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of \nthe area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds \nover the central Caribbean though late today. The area of high \npressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure \ngradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure \nwill build north of the area once again the second half of the \nweek, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds \nover the central Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from a 1010 mb gale center north of the\narea near 34N52W southwestward to 31N54W to 29N57W and to 28N64W \nto 28N68W and northwestward to 31N74W, transitioning to \nstationary front north of there. Latest satellite scatterometer \ndata shows fresh to strong southwest winds north of 28N east of \nfront to near 49W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds. Scattered \nto numerous showers and thunderstorms are present within 180 nm \neast-southeast of the front north of 25N, and within 120 nm south \nof the front between 62W and 66W and also between 70W and 73W.\n \nThe central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the \ninfluence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of\nthe Azores. Its related gradient is s supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh \nnortheast winds east of 20W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will \nwill stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Moderate winds in the\nvicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak \npressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, \nlocally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through \nthe week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected south \nof about 22N.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202300299093049351", "issued": "2026-08-17T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202300299093049351"}