{"msg": "941\nAXPZ20 KNHC 171529\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall Colombia: A tropical wave, currently analyzed \nnear 77W, will cross NW Colombia through tonight, interacting\nwith the monsoon trough and combining with enhanced divergence\naloft to induce numerous thunderstorms over the Choco-Colombia.\nHeavy rainfall from these thunderstorms may lead to flooding.\nConditions should improve Tuesday as the wave moves into the\nEastern Pacific.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 02N near the border\nof Ecuador and Colombia northward to across eastern Panama near\nthe border with Colombia, and continuing into the Caribbean Sea,\nmoving westward around 15 kt. Refer to the Special Features \nsection below for additional details including Heavy Rainfall.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from just offshore \nOaxaca southward to the Equator, moving westward around 25 kt.\nScattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between\n93W and 100W. An area of low pressure is likely to form in\nassociation with this wave several hundred miles south of the\ncoast of southern Mexico late this week. Gradual development of\nthis system is expected at a tropical depression may form by \nthis weekend as the low moves west-northwest while staying south \nof Mexico. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 124W from 16N southward,\nmoving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted east of this wave from 07N to 12N between 114W and 124W. A\nbroad area of low pressure could form well to the southeast of\nthe Hawaiian Islands during the latter part of the week. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure near the\ncoast of northern Colombia at 10N73W to across the border of \nCosta Rica and Nicaragua to the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N85W to \n07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 08N122W, then resumes \nwest of a tropical wave from 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. \nScattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 02N to 14N between 77W and 93W, and from 05N to 13N \nbetween 124W and 131W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave that has a potential for tropical development offshore\nsouthern Mexico late this week. \nStrong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of\nBaja California, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7 to 10 ft \nover the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining open \nPacific offshore waters, except to 7 ft near Punta Eugenia, and 1\nto 3 ft over the Gulf of California. A surface trough extending\nSE from just offshore Cabo Corrientes is inducing numerous\nmoderate to isolated strong convection between its axis and the\ncoast, leading to gusty winds and squally weather, including \nlocally higher seas. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to fresh\npulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force at \ntimes tonight and Tue night, with resultant rough seas. Fresh \nnorthwest winds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula\nthrough Tue night, with winds reaching strong speeds near Punta \nEugenia through this evening. Meanwhile, a surge of strong SE \nwinds may move from N of Cabo Corrientes into the southern Gulf \nof California tonight into early Tue, likely associated with a \ncomplex of convection.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall that may cause flooding over the day or so in portions \nof Colombia.\nFresh northeast to east gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo \nregion. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the \nmonsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon \ntrough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell, \nexcept to 8 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh northeast to east gap winds \nover Papagayo region, locally strong to near gale-force at times \nwith occassionally and locally rough seas as a result. Moderate \nto fresh winds will extend away from this area across the far \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala midweek. Moderate to\nfresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough \ninto tonight before weakening. Large southerly swell will impact \nwaters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the \nnext several days, largest expected later today through Wed. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave in the western basin that has potential for tropical develop\nlate this week.\nA surface trough is over the northwest waters, analyzed from \n23N130W to 18N140W, with moderate to fresh winds from 17N to 24N\nto the west of 130W and the trough. Associated scattered \nmoderate isolated strong convection is found from 24N to 28N \nbetween 125W and 134W. Some moderate to fresh winds are also \nnoted from 09N to 24N between 117W and 130W near a tropical wave \ndescribed above. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are found south \nof the monsoon trough to the east of 124W, where seas are 7 to 9\nft in mixed SE and SW swells. Winds are moderate or weaker \nacross the remainder of the open waters, along with seas of 4 to \n7 ft.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure could form several \nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico \naround the middle part of the week, associated with a tropical \nwave currently analyzed near 77W. Gradual development of this \nsystem is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could \ndevelop towards the end of the week or next weekend as the system\nmoves west- northwestward while staying south of Mexico. In \naddition, a broad area of low pressure could form well to the \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands during the latter part of the \nweek, associated with a tropical wave currently analyzed near \n124W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \ntowards the end of the week and into the weekend as the system \nmoves generally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific and into the central Pacific. Regardless of development, \nexpect some increasing winds and seas with these areas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202291365414043655", "issued": "2026-08-17T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202291365414043655"}