{"id": "1202284771679961095", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-17T15:00:00Z", "msg": "061\nWTPA42 PHFO 171455\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  21\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Mon Aug 17 2026\n \nConvection is limited to the inner core of Lala based on the latest \nsatellite imagery this morning with the cyclone embedded in a dry \nairmass. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates \nfrom HFO and JTWC range from  45 to 55 kt. The objective intensity \nestimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 58 kt. Given that the \nsatellite presentation has remained steady the last several hours \nand using a blend of all the intensity estimates, the current \nintensity has been held at 50 kt.  \n \nLala is moving westward, or 265/10 kt, and this motion is expected \nto continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical \nridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is \nforecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough \nmoving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to turn toward the \nnorthwest and then north during the middle of the week. Track \nforecast confidence remains relatively high through the next few \ndays. Beyond Day 3, the spread increases with the turn to the \nnorthwest and north, and how fast that occurs. The GDMI and HCCA \nturn the system more abruptly, with an increase in forward speed \ncompared to the remainder of the guidance. The latest NHC track \nforecast is very close to the previous advisory through midweek, \nthen follows a blend of the previous forecast and the HCCA and \nGoogle DeepMind aids. \n\nSome fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or \nso as the system moves away from the main Hawaiian Islands, as the \nsystem continues to deal with a dry airmass and moderate wind shear. \nIn about a day or so, Lala will move into a slightly better \nenvironment with warm sea-surface temperatures and more moisture in \nthe mid-levels, which will allow some intensification to occur. How \nmuch intensification remains to be seen, especially if Lala's inner \ncore is small and compact, as some of the hurricane regional models \ndepict. There is also the potential for positive interaction with \nthe aforementioned shortwave trough that may increase storm top \ndivergence. The latest NHC intensity forecast calls for Lala to \nregain hurricane strength in about a day or two and is similar to \nthe previous prediction, although it is below some of the hurricane \nregional models, HCCA and GDMI intensity aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/1500Z 20.4N 163.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 20.4N 164.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 20.4N 166.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 20.6N 168.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 21.2N 169.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  20/0000Z 22.1N 171.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 23.1N 171.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 25.3N 172.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 28.5N 171.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}