{"id": "1202210339902062599", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-17T09:00:00Z", "msg": "960\nWTPA42 PHFO 170837\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  20\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026\n \nLala appears to be succumbing to the surrounding dry mid-level air, \nwith convective coverage having diminished over the past several \nhours. Intermittent bursts of deep convection persist near the \ncenter of the circulation, while the previously fragmented band \nacross the northern and western portions of the circulation has \nweakened. The latest subjective Current Intensity estimates from HFO \nand JTWC range from 45 to 55 kt, which generally align with the \nlatest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. In addition, a 0702 UTC \nMETOP-B scatterometer pass provided useful information on Lala's \noverall structure and wind field and supports an intensity near 50 \nkt. Based on a blend of these data and the satellite presentation, \nthe initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory.\n \nLala is moving westward, or 270/11 kt, and this motion is expected\nto continue over the next couple of days as a strong subtropical\nridge remains positioned to the north. Thereafter, a weakness is\nforecast to develop in the ridge in response to a shortwave trough\nmoving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to slow and\ngradually turn toward the northwest and then northward during the\nmiddle to latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence remains\nrelatively high through the first half of the week, but decreases\nthereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models and\nconsiderable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest NHC\ntrack forecast is very close to the previous advisory through\nmidweek, then follows a blend of the previous forecast, the\nmulti-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean\nthereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty.\n \nLittle change in intensity is expected during the next day or so as \nLala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and \nsouth of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. \nThereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a \nstrengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane \nintensity by midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. Although \nthe cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air and \nincreasing westerly vertical wind shear could temper the amount of \nstrengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. \nNevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala \nstrengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian \nIslands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward \nthe middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the \nforecast period.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n1. Rain will continue to taper off across the island chain tonight \ninto Monday morning, but localized areas of flooding and \nmudslides remain possible.\n\n2. Continue to use caution in the wake of Lala, as dangerous hazards\nremain, including flooded areas and downed power lines. If using a\ngenerator, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from\ndoors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide\npoisoning.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/0900Z 20.7N 162.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 20.6N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 20.5N 165.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 20.6N 167.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 20.9N 169.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  19/1800Z 21.7N 170.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 22.6N 171.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 24.5N 172.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  22/0600Z 26.9N 172.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}