{"msg": "518\nAXPZ20 KNHC 170745\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0720 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Panama and Colombia: A tropical wave, currently\nanalyzed near 77W, is crossing Panama will interacting with the \nmonsoon trough and combining with enhanced divergence aloft to \ninduce thunderstorms, particularly over the Darien region of \nPanama and the Choco-Colombia. Heavy rainfall from these \nthunderstorms may lead to flooding. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 02N near the border\nof Ecuador and Colombia northward to across eastern Panama near\nthe border with Colombia, and continuing into the Caribbean Sea,\nmoving westward around 20 kt. Refer to the Special Features\nsection below for additional details including Heavy Rainfall.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 97.5W from just offshore\nOaxaca southward to the Equator, moving quickly westward around \n25 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough\nsection below. An area of low pressure could form several \nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico \naround the middle part of the week.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 17N southward, \nmoving westward around 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in \nthe ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A broad area of low pressure\ncould form well to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands during \nthe latter part of the week. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure near the\ncoast of northern Colombia at 10.5N73.5W to across the border of\nCosta Rica and Nicaragua to the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N84.5W to\n07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 08N122W, then resumes\nwest of a tropical wave from 07N124W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered\nto numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted \nfrom 02N to 14N between 77W and 106W, and from 05N to 13N between\n115W and 131W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave that has a potential for tropical development offshore\nsouthern Mexico later this week. \nStrong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec as confirmed by a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass. \nFresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of Baja \nCalifornia, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia, also\nconfirmed by ASCAT. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. \nSeas are 7 to 10 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over\nthe remaining open Pacific offshore waters, except to 7 ft near\nPunta Eugenia, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. A\ncluster of scattered to numerous thunderstorms is propagating\nfrom portions of NW Mexico into the southern Gulf of California\nbringing gusty winds and squally weather including locally higher\nseas.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to \nfresh pulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force \nat times early this morning, tonight and Tue night, while \nresultant rough seas are also expected. Fresh northwest winds are\nforecast off of the Baja California peninsula through Tue night,\nwith winds reaching strong speeds near Punta Eugenia through this\nevening. Meanwhile, a surge of strong SE winds may move from \nnear Cabo Corrientes up across the Gulf of California tonight \ninto early Tue, likely associated with another developing \ncomplex of convection.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall that may cause flooding over the next few days in\nportions of Colombia and Panama.\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region, with moderate to fresh winds extending\nwell away from the Gulf to near 09N95W where locally rough seas\nexist. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the \nmonsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon \ntrough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell over \nthe remainder of forecast waters, except to 8 ft southwest of \nthe Galapagos Islands. Thunderstorms are present near the monsoon\ntrough as described above across much of the offshore waters, \nwith locally higher winds and seas possible near any convection.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure\nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh northeast to east gap winds \nover Papagayo region, locally strong to near gale-force at times \nwith occassionally and locally rough seas as a result. Moderate \nto fresh winds will extend away from this area across the far \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala midweek. Moderate to\nfresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough \ninto tonight before weakening. Large southerly swell will impact\nwaters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the \nnext several days, largest expected later today through Wed. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe remnants of Hernan and associated winds and seas have moved\ncompletely west of 140W in the past several hours. A surface\ntrough is over the northwest waters, analyzed from 23.5N130W to\n18N140W, with moderate to fresh winds from 17N to 24N to the west\nof 130W and the trough as captured by very recent ASCAT\nscatterometer data. Associated scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is found on conventional infrared satellite imagery \nfrom 23.5N to 28N between 125W and 134W. Some moderate to fresh \nwinds are also noted from 09N to 24N between 117W and 130W near \na tropical wave described above. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds \nare found south of the monsoon trough to the east of 126W, where\nseas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swells. Winds are moderate\nor weaker across the remainder of the open waters, along with\nseas of 4 to 7 ft. Very active convection is present along the\nmonsoon trough and ITCZ as described above, possibly leading to \nlocally higher winds and seas.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure could form several \nhundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico \naround the middle part of the week, associated with a tropical \nwave currently analyzed near 77W. Gradual development of this \nsystem is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could \ndevelop towards the end of the week or next weekend as the system\nmoves west- northwestward while staying south of Mexico. In \naddition, a broad area of low pressure could form well to the \nsoutheast of the Hawaiian Islands during the latter part of the \nweek, associated with a tropical wave currently analyzed near \n124W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \ntowards the end of the week and into the weekend as the system \nmoves generally westward across the western portion of the east \nPacific and into the central Pacific. Regardless of development, \nexpect some increasing winds and seas with these areas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202200108730417159", "issued": "2026-08-17T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202200108730417159"}