{"id": "1202139586837938183", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-17T03:00:00Z", "msg": "902\nWTPA42 PHFO 170237\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  19\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Aug 16 2026\n \nLala has shown very little change in convective structure over the \npast several hours as it begins to move away from the main Hawaiian \nIslands. Deep convection remains over the center of the circulation, \nwith a large fragmented convective band wrapping into the center \nacross the northern and western semicircles. The latest subjective \nCurrent Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T3.5/55 kt, with \nobjective intensity estimates ranging from 35 to 50 kt. Based on \nthese data and the steady trend in satellite presentation, the \ninitial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nLala is moving westward, or 265/14 kt. A strong subtropical ridge \npositioned north of the cyclone should maintain Lala on a generally \nwestward motion through the first half of the week. Thereafter, a \nweakness is forecast to develop in the ridge in response to a \nshortwave trough moving across the northern Pacific, causing Lala to \nslow and gradually turn toward the northwest and then northward \nduring the latter half of the week. Track forecast confidence \nremains relatively high through the first half of the week, but \ndecreases thereafter due to run-to-run inconsistencies in the models \nand considerable cross-track spread among the guidance. The latest \nNHC track forecast is very close to or slightly left of the previous \nadvisory through midweek, then follows a blend of the previous \nforecast, the multi-model consensus (HCCA), and the Google DeepMind \nensemble mean thereafter to account for the increasing uncertainty.\n \nLittle change in intensity is expected during the next day or two as \nLala continues westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands and \nsouth of the eastern portion of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. \nThereafter, the intensity guidance continues to indicate a \nstrengthening trend, with Lala forecast to regain hurricane \nintensity around midweek as it begins to turn northwestward. \nAlthough the cyclone will remain over warm waters, mid-level dry air \nand increasing westerly vertical wind shear could limit the amount \nof strengthening that occurs later in the forecast period. \nNevertheless, much of the guidance continues to show Lala \nstrengthening as it approaches portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian \nIslands later in the week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous advisory through midweek, then trends toward \nthe middle of the guidance envelope during the latter half of the \nforecast period.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, will persist \nover Kauai County into the overnight period. The strongest winds \nwill occur over areas of higher terrain.\n \n2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui by \ntonight, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides \nwill be possible. Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding and \nmudslides from Lala will continue across the rest of the island \nchain through later tonight or early Monday.\n \n3. Large waves generated by Lala will continue to impact exposed \nshores of the Hawaiian Islands through tonight, with a gradual \ndownward trend expected from east to west by Monday. This heavy surf \nmay cause localized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including \nflooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be \nsure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, \nand garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  17/0300Z 20.7N 161.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 20.8N 163.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 20.6N 165.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 20.6N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  19/1200Z 21.1N 170.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 22.1N 171.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 23.9N 173.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  22/0000Z 25.9N 173.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}