{"msg": "529\nAXNT20 KNHC 162234\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2200 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 35W from 06N to\n20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection associated with this\nwave has diminished this evening. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W from 06N to 22N,\nmoving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted\nfrom 12N to 14N between 50W and 55W. \nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from Hispaniola to\nColombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 12N to 18N between 68W and 77W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends \nsouthwestward to 13N25W to 12N35W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W \nand continues to 13N45W to 12N50W. Another segment of the ITCZ is\nnoted from 11N55W to 09N60W. No significant convection is evident\naside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section\nabove.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb \nhigh pressure center just offshore Louisiana. Scattered moderate\nconvection is present in the west-central Gulf in association with\na surface trough that extends roughly 120 nm offshore from\nTampico, Mexico, to Frontera, Mexico. A diurnal increase of NE\nwinds to moderate to fresh speeds is occurring in the eastern Bay\nof Campeche, otherwise winds are light to gentle. Seas are mainly\n1 to 3 ft, with localized 4 ft seas near the Yucatan Channel and\nin the Florida Straits. \nFor the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf \nwaters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support \nmostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A \ndiurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to \noccasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each \nevening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at\nnight as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate\nseas are expected through the forecast period. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for details on Central Caribbean\nconvection because caused by a tropical wave. In the NW basin, \nscattered moderate convection is noted between Cuba and Jamaica, \nand northward from the Gulf of Honduras to just offshore the \nYucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between low pressure to\nthe south and the Atlantic ridge centered east of the Bahamas is \nsupporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas over the central \nCaribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9 ft seas across most of\nthe rest of the basin. Moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas \nelsewhere over the northwest Caribbean north and west of the\nCayman Islands.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the \narea and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over\nthe central Caribbean though Mon. A tropical wave in the central \nCaribbean is accompanied by active convection which will create \nlocally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue westward \nacross the western Caribbean early this week. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA pre-frontal trough has moved S of 31N and extends this evening\nfrom 31N59W to 27N64W. Scattered moderate convection associated \nwith this trough and the parent cold front are impacting waters N \nof 27N between 52W and 72W. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high, \nanchored by a 1022 mb high center N of the Bahamas dominates. \nAhead of the aforementioned trough, fresh SW winds and 6 to 8 ft \nseas extend E to 50W. Otherwise, moderate seas and moderate or \nweaker winds dominate the basin. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a \nridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central \nCaribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds \nsouth of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the \nnorthern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across\nthe northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by \nTue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front\nand E of 70W today and tonight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202091674686586887", "issued": "2026-08-16T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202091674686586887"}