{"msg": "409\nAXPZ20 KNHC 162058\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Rainfall in Panama and Colombia: A tropical wave will cross\nPanama and northern Colombia through Mon, interacting with the\nmonsoon trough and combining with enhanced divergence aloft to \ninduce thunderstorms, particularly over the Darien region of \nPanama and the Choco-Colombia. Heavy rainfall from these \nthunderstorms may lead to flooding. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 92W from the Galapagos\nIslands northward to Guatemala, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.\nAn area of low pressure could form in association with this\ntropical wave, several hundred miles south of the coast of\nsouthern Mexico around the middle part of next week. Gradual\ndevelopment of the low is possible thereafter, and a tropical\ndepression could form toward the end of the week or during the\nweekend. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon \ntrough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 118W, south of 17W, moving\nwestward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is \nassociated with this wave at this time. Broad low pressure may\nform in association with this wave well southeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands during the middle to latter part of next week.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from near 09N76W to 08N97W to \n07N112W. The ITCZ extends from 07N112W to 07N116W and from\n06N120W to 08N135W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 02N to 13N E of 104W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave that has a potential for tropical development offshore\nsouthern Mexico next week. \nStrong to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Fresh northwest winds are near the Pacific coast of\nBaja California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas \nare 6 to 8 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5 to 7 ft over the \nremaining open Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the \nGulf of California. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the\noffshore waters from Guerrero southward. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of strong north winds over\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, with moderate to \nfresh pulses thereafter. Winds will reach reach near gale force \nat times Mon and Tue nights, while rough seas are also expected.\nFresh northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja California \npeninsula through Tue night, with winds reaching strong speeds \nnear Punta Eugenia.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall that may cause flooding over the next few days in\nportions of Colombia and Panama.\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 7 to 9 ft downwind to \nnear 10N90W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the\nmonsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon \ntrough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell over \nthe remainder of forecast waters. Thunderstorms are present near\nthe monsoon trough as described above across much of the \noffshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near\nany convection.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east \ngap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight.\nSimilar conditions will return starting late Tue. Moderate to \nfresh southerly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough into\nMon night. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly \nfrom Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several \ndays, largest expected Tue and Wed.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe low pressure associated with the remnants of Hernan is\nopening to a surface trough as it moves W to around 140W. Fresh E\nwinds and rough seas are still noted from about 17N to 20N W of\n136W, but associated convection has dissipated this afternoon.\nMainly moderate winds and seas dominate much of the remaining\nwaters, with easterly winds N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, SE\nwinds S of the ITCZ, and SW winds S of the monsoon trough. Some\nrough seas are noted S of the Equator, where SW long period \nswell is most significant. \nFor the forecast, winds and seas associated with the remnants of\nHernan will diminish tonight toward 140W. Rough seas will \nprevail along and south of the Equator through the middle of next\nweek. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles \nsouth of the coast of southern Mexico around the middle part of \nthe week. Gradual development of this system is possible \nthereafter, and a tropical depression could develop towards the \nend of the week or during the weekend while the system moves \nwest-northwestward, while staying south of Mexico. In addition, a\nbroad area of low pressure could form well to the southeast of \nthe Hawaiian Islands during the middle to latter part of the \nweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \ntowards the end of the week and into the weekend, while the \nsystem moves generally westward across the western portion of the\neast Pacific and into the central Pacific. Regardless of \ndevelopment, expect some increasing winds and seas with this \narea.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202072887052402695", "issued": "2026-08-16T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202072887052402695"}