{"id": "1202072300377145351", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-16T21:00:00Z", "msg": "214\nWTPA42 PHFO 162055\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  18\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026\n\nThe satellite presentation of Lala is highlighted by a large, curved \nconvective band that extends over the northern and eastern sides of \nthe storm. A small area of central convection obscures the low-level \ncenter, and a large dry slot wraps around the southern and eastern \nportions of the circulation. Objective and subjective satellite \nintensity estimates have continued to decrease this morning, and the \ninitial intensity is set at 55 kt, in best agreement with recent \nD-MINT and D-PRINT estimates from UW-CIMSS.\n\nAfter moving northwestward for much of the morning, recent radar \nfixes indicate Lala has sped up and begun its westward turn. A \nsubtropical ridge over the central Pacific should keep Lala moving \nwestward during the next couple of days. The track forecast for days \n3-5 remains challenging. There is slightly better agreement among \nthe track guidance this cycle on the storm turning northwestward \nlater in the period as an upper-level trough induces a weakness in \nthe subtropical ridge. However, there is still a bifurcation of GFS \nand Google Deep Mind ensemble solutions, with some members \ncontinuing westward across the International Date Line. With the \noverall track envelope shifting eastward this cycle, the updated NHC \ntrack forecast lies to the right of the previous one at most \nforecast times. This adjustment is in the direction of the latest \nmulti-model consensus aids and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.\n\nGiven Lala's disorganized structure, its proximity to the Hawaiian \nIslands, and the drier environment surrounding the storm, little \nchange in strength is expected during the next 24 h. Once Lala pulls \naway from Hawaii, warm SSTs along the forecast track could allow for \nsome reintensification. However, moderate west-northwesterly shear \nand continued dry air in the environment could temper the amount \nof strengthening that occurs. The NHC intensity forecast has been \nnudged upward in the 36-72 h period and shows Lala becoming a \nhurricane again by midweek. The forecast still lies below the \nintensity consensus (IVCN), which is higher due to the stronger \nhurricane regional model solutions.  \n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, accompanied by gusts to near \nhurricane strength, will persist over Maui County, Oahu, and Kauai \nCounty today. The strongest winds will occur over areas of higher \nterrain. \n \n2. Rain will continue to taper off across the Big Island and Maui \nthis afternoon, however additional areas of flash flooding and \nmudslides will be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the \npotential for flooding and mudslides from Lala will continue across \nthe rest of the island chain through later tonight. \n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions \nof the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing \nshores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala \npasses through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized\ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including \nflooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be \nsure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, \nand garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/2100Z 20.9N 160.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 21.2N 163.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 21.1N 165.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 21.0N 167.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  19/0600Z 21.3N 169.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 21.9N 171.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 23.5N 174.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 25.0N 176.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}