{"msg": "706\nAXNT20 KNHC 161556\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1530 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from\n07N to 19N with axis near 33W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 30W and 35W.\nA tropical wave is over the Atlantic central waters, extending \nfrom 04N to 20N with axis near 51W, moving west at 15-20 kt. \nScattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 47W and \n52W.\nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 72W \nsouth of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to\nisolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 68W \nand 77W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and extends \nsouthwestward to 13N25W to 12N31W. The ITCZ begins near 12N40W \nand continues to 13.5N45W to 12N50W. No significant covection is\nevident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves\nsection above.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1021 mb \nhigh pressure center over the northwest Gulf near 28N91W.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the west-\ncentral Gulf, west of a trough that extends across the southwest \nGulf along 94W from 24N94W southward to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico \nalong the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting moderate SE \nwinds and 3-5 ft seas east of the trough, and light to gentle \nbreezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf. \nFor the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters\nthrough the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly \ngentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally \ninduced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong \nwinds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds\nwill spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough\nmigrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected \nthrough the forecast period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nClusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the\ncentral Caribbean between northwest Venezuela and Hispaniola,\nalong a tropical wave moving through the region. The pressure\ngradient between this feature and the Atlantic ridge centered east\nof the Bahamas is supporting strong E winds and 10-12 ft seas \nover the north-central Caribbean, and fresh NE to E winds and 7-9\nft elsewhere east of 85W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 9\nft are also active through the Windward Passage to the north coast\nof Jamaica. Fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the lee of\nCuba, with moderate NE winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere over the\nnorthwest Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of \nthe area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds \nover the central Caribbean though Mon. The tropical wave in the \ncentral Caribbean is accompanied by active convection which will \ncreate locally higher winds and seas. The wave will continue \nwestward across the western Caribbean Mon.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThe subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the\nBermuda-Azores High, anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered\neast of the northern Bahamas near 26N73W. Scattered showers and a\nfew thunderstorms are active between this ridge and Bermuda, on\nthe southern end of a stationary front north of the area along\n32N. Moderate to fresh E winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted between\nthe ridge and front, specifically from 28N to 30N between 55W and\n70W. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of\nthe ridge, specifically south of 22N and west of 55W, with strong\nwinds and rough seas near the northern approaches to the Windward\nPassage. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge \nanchored by 1027 mb high pressure centered over the Azores. Light\nto gentle SE to S breezes are evident along the ridge axis from\nthe Azores to the Bahamas, with 3-4 ft seas. A band of moderate \nNE winds and 4-6 ft seas from off northwest Africa to the eastern\nCaribbean, except fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft seas in the deep\ntropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft\nseas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a \nridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central \nCaribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds \nsouth of 22N through tonight. A cold front will move into the \nnorthern waters east of 70W late today. The front will move across\nthe northern forecast waters on Mon then weaken into a trough by \nTue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front\nand E of 70W today and tonight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202013472348667911", "issued": "2026-08-16T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202013472348667911"}