{"msg": "291\nAXPZ20 KNHC 161539\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: A\ntropical wave crossing Central America and Colombia interacting\nwith the monsoon trough will combine with enhanced divergence\naloft over the next few days to including heavy rainfall over \nthe Darien region of Panama and the Choco-Colombia into Mon. \nThere is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall \ncould reach, particularly due to how far south the available \nmoisture and the westerly flow enters the region. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 89.5W north of 02N near the\nGalapagos Islands to inland eastern El Salvador and western\nHonduras, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure could form\nin association with this wave around the middle part of the week\nseveral hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, and\ngradual tropical development is possible of this low thereafter.\nNearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section\nbelow.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, south of 17W, moving\nwestward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is \nassociated with this wave at this time. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from near 10N75W to 08N100W to \n07N117W. The ITCZ extends from 07N116W to 08N135W . Scattered to\nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N \nto 13N between 77W and 94W, and from 02N to 09N between 94W and \n104W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical\nwave that has a potential for tropical development offshore\nsouthern Mexico next week. \nFresh to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are near the \nPacific coast of Baja California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate \nor weaker. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5 to\n7 ft over the remaining open Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3\nft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted in the offshore waters of Chiapas and Oaxaca. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north \nwinds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, then \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Winds may reach near gale force at \ntimes through Tue night, while rough seas are also expected. \nModerate to fresh northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through Tue night, with winds reaching \nstrong speeds near Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are forecast.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 7 to 10 ft downwind to \nnear 10N90W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker north of the\nmonsoon trough, and moderate to fresh south of the monsoon \ntrough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period southwest swell over \nthe remainder of forecast waters. Very active convection is \npresent near the monsoon trough as described above across much of\nthe offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible\nnear any convection.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east \ngap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight before\nweakening with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh through \nTue, then back to fresh to strong thereafter. Moderate to fresh \nsoutherly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough through \nMon. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly from \nEcuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several days, \nlargest expected by around the middle portion of the week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nWeakening low pressure of 1009 mb associated with the remnants of\nHernan is centered near 16N138W. It is producing fresh winds in\nthe northern semicircle and rough seas in the surrounding waters.\nScattered moderate convection is noted between 90 nm and 180 nm \nin the NE quadrant. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found \nelsewhere from 15N to 23N between 130W and 140W, and from 08N to \n21N between 118W and 130W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are \nfound south of the Equator. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the\nremainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of about 02N \nbetween 90W and 121W, amd 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail\nsouth of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near \nthe Equator to the east of about 130W over the next several days\nin persistent and reinforced southerly swells. The remnants of\nHernan and associated residual winds and seas will shift of 140W\nby this evening. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could \nform several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical\ndepression could form late next week or over the weekend while \nthe system moves west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. \nAdditionally, an area of low pressure is expected to form well to\nthe west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula early next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form during the middle to latter portions of \nnext week while it moves generally westward across the western \nportion of the east Pacific. Regardless of development, expect\nsome increasing winds and seas with this area.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1202010116718493703", "issued": "2026-08-16T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1202010116718493703"}