{"id": "1202001511216447495", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-16T15:00:00Z", "msg": "187\nWTPA42 PHFO 161455\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  17\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2026\n\nLala is showing ill effects from land interaction with the Hawaiian \nIslands and dry air intrusions this morning. The coverage of deep \nconvection has diminished and become displaced to the north of the \ncenter. The southern half of the circulation is partially exposed in \nproxy-visible satellite images, with drier mid-level air apparent in \nwater vapor imagery to the south of the storm. Radar data from \nKohala (PHKM) indicate bands of heavy rainfall continue across Maui \nCounty and are beginning to reach Oahu. The initial intensity has \nbeen lowered to 60 kt this morning, which is supported by a blend of \nthe data-T and final-T Dvorak numbers from HFO and JTWC and some of \nthe UW-CIMSS objective estimates between 55-60 kt.\n \nThe long-term motion of the storm is still northwestward (305/12\nkt). Lala is expected to turn westward later today and continue\nwestward for the next couple of days along the southern extent of a\nsubtropical ridge to its north. The track models are in good\nagreement on this portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track\nprediction lies slightly north of the previous one, mainly because\nthe current position is north of the previous forecast track. The\nlonger-range track forecast is highly uncertain, with a bifurcation\nin the track guidance related to whether a weakness develops in the\nsubtropical ridge to induce a northward turn. The ECMWF and UKMET\nmodels show a westward motion through the period, while the GFS\ndepicts a sharp northward turn at days 4-5. For now, the NHC\nforecast continues to split the difference and generally lies\nbetween the simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.\n \nGiven the current structure of Lala and the drier air surrounding\nthe storm, some additional near-term weakening is forecast. However,\nthe intensity guidance this cycle was more aggressive with\nrestrengthening during the middle part of this week, particularly\nthe hurricane regional models. The shear diagnosed from the SHIPS\nguidance does not appear prohibitive, and SSTs along the track are\nwarm enough to support intensification if Lala can become better\norganized within a slightly better mid-level moisture environment.\nTherefore, the updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased\nfrom 48-120 h, though it still lies below the simple intensity\nconsensus (IVCN).\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Strong wind gusts are expected to continue across the Big Island\nof Hawaii this morning, particularly over areas of higher terrain.\nAcross portions of the smaller islands, tropical-storm-force winds\naccompanied by gusts to near hurricane strength will persist through\ntoday.\n \n2. Rain will continue to taper across the Big Island and Maui this\nmorning, however additional areas of flash flooding and mudslides\nwill be possible. Otherwise, heavy rainfall and the potential for\nflooding from Lala will continue to spread westward across the\nisland chain through today.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions\nof the Hawaiian Islands today. Surf is building along east-facing\nshores and will increase along exposed southern shores as Lala\npasses through the region. This heavy surf may cause localized\ncoastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n4. Use caution after Lala passes as deadly hazards remain, including\nflooded areas and downed power lines. If you use a generator, be\nsure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows,\nand garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/1500Z 20.2N 158.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 20.7N 160.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 20.9N 162.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 20.8N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 20.6N 167.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  19/0000Z 20.7N 168.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 21.0N 170.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 22.4N 174.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 23.5N 176.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}