{"msg": "388\nAXNT20 KNHC 161059\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1050 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two \ntropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next\nseveral days. The waves will interact with enhanced divergence \naloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located  \nnear 88W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy \nprecipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of \nPanama and into Choco-Colombia into Sun. The second tropical wave\nwill enter the western Caribbean tonight into Mon and strengthen \nthe cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia, which will favor \nan increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly\nflow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest \nprecipitation is expected in Costa Rica through this morning, \nwhile the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, \nthe Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia late today into Monday. \nThere is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall \ncould reach, particularly due to how far south the available \nmoisture and the westerly flow enters the region. \nPlease refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather \nservices for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from\n07N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered \nmoderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 25W and 37W.\nA tropical wave is over the central waters, extending from 04N to\n20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered\nmoderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 46W and 52W.\nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 69W \nsouth of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate tothe approaches to the\nWindward Passagestrong convection is from 12N to 19N between 66W\nand 73W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, and extends \nsouthwestward to 11N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ begins near 09N48W \nand continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in \nthe Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection\nis offshore W Africa from 06N to 14N between 11W and 20W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1021 mb high is over the Florida Panhandle coastal waters\nextending a ridge axis southward to 23N. A generally weak pressure\ngradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N\nof 23N. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough moves across the Bay of\nCampeche enhancing winds to moderate speeds and building seas from\nslight to moderate. Scattered showers are offshore Veracruz, ahead\nof the trough. \nFor the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the \nnorth-central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by \nTue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support \nmostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with \npulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan \nPeninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface \ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW \nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe main feature over the basin is a tropical wave moving across\nHispaniola and central Caribbean this morning, which is bringging\nstrong winds, rough seas and heavy showers to this region.\nScattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama \noffshores associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific\nmonsoon. Fresh to strong trade winds are across much of the basin\nalong with moderate to rough seas, except for moderate to fresh \nNE to E winds over the NW Caribbean where seas are moderate. This\nis due to a relatively strong gradient of pressure over the region\ninfluenced by high pressure E of the Bahamas. This is also\naccelerating the winds across the Windward Passage to strong\nspeeds, which has built seas to 9 ft. \nFor the forecast, surface ridging N of the area combined with the\nColombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over\nmost of the east, central and SW Caribbean through this evening. \nA strong tropical wave, with axis near 68W, will impact the \ncentral Caribbean today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds, \nmoderate to rough seas and locally heavy rain will be associated \nwith the wave, forecast to reach the western part of the basin Mon\nnight into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward \nIslands by Tue. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nThe subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the\nBermuda-Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate or weaker\nwinds, except across the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the\nWindward Passage, and the adjacent waters of Puerto Rico and\nHispaniola S of 23N where winds are moderate to fresh from the E,\nexcept locally strong in the the approaches to the Windward \nPassage. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are also ongoing over the\nNE offshore waters N of 28N and E of 74W ahead of an approaching\ncold front which is also generating scattered showers and tstms\nover this region. Moderate seas are across the western, central\nand eastern subtropical Atlantic waters.  \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of a tropical wave through the Caribbean Sea will\ncause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the \napproaches and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking \nahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast \nborder east of 70W late today, and move across the northern \nforecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. \nFresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and \nE of 70W today and tonight.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201955106908569607", "issued": "2026-08-16T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201955106908569607"}