{"id": "1201930430460559367", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-16T09:00:00Z", "msg": "901\nWTPA42 PHFO 160854\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  16\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026\n \nLala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier this afternoon\nwhile passing near South Point of the Big Island. Since that time,\nthe hurricane has continued northwestward just offshore of the\nLeeward Coast of the Big Island, while its satellite presentation\nhas gradually degraded. Despite the less organized appearance,\nsubjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from both HFO and JTWC\nremain at 4.0/65 kt, which align with the latest objective estimates\nfrom UW-CIMSS. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is\nheld at 65 kt.\n \nLala continues to move northwestward just offshore of the Leeward\nCoast of the Big Island, with an initial motion of 310/13 kt. A\ngradual turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are\nexpected on Sunday as the influence of the Big Island terrain\ndiminishes and Lala moves westward along the southern periphery of a\nstrong subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue\nthrough early next week. By the middle of next week, a shortwave\ntrough moving across the northern Pacific is forecast to weaken the\nridge, causing Lala to slow and gradually turn toward the\nwest-northwest and northwest. Forecast confidence in the track,\nhowever, begins to decrease by day 5 due to increasing cross-track\nspread among the guidance. The latest NHC forecast lies close to the\nGoogle DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA) aids\nthroughout the forecast period.\n \nLala appears to have peaked in intensity earlier while passing near\nSouth Point of the Big Island. The hurricane could maintain its\nintensity for a few more hours, but weakening is expected by early\nSunday as Lala continues to pull away from the Big Island. Dry\nmid-level air along with moderate vertical wind shear should\ncontribute to a deterioration of the convective structure and\nsupport additional weakening. Some re-strengthening could occur\nafter 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the\nprevious advisory.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging winds are expected to continue on the Big Island of \nHawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest wind gusts \nexpected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged to stay in \ntheir shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds with gusts \nto near or up to hurricane strength will persist across portions of \nthe smaller islands through Sunday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall, with life-threatening flooding and mudslides,\nespecially in areas of steep terrain, will continue tonight into\nearly Sunday over the Big Island and Maui. This heavy rain and flood\nrisk will continue to spread westward across the island chain\nthrough Sunday.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions\nof the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along\neast-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores\nas Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause\nlocalized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/0900Z 19.6N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 20.1N 159.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.5N 161.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 20.5N 164.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 20.4N 166.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  18/1800Z 20.3N 168.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 20.4N 170.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 21.5N 173.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 23.1N 176.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}