{"msg": "530\nAXPZ20 KNHC 160729\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0720 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 88.5W north of 02N near the\nGalapagos Islands to inland eastern El Salvador and western\nHonduras and continuing into the far NW Caribbean Sea, moving \nwestward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 107.5W south of 17N, moving \nwestward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1008 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia near 10N75W to 08.5N100W to 07N117W. The ITCZ\nextends from 07N117W to 08N125W to 05N140W. Scattered to numerous\nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N\nbetween 77W and 94W, and from 02N to 09N between 94W and 104W.\nIsolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is\nnoted from 01N to 18N between 104W and 135W, and from 00N to 08N\nbetween 135W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are near the \nPacific coast of Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer\ndata. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7 to 10\nft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5 to 7 ft over the remaining \nopen Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of \nCalifornia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the \nMexican offshore zones, except some clusters inland to near the\ncoasts of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and near Cabo Corrientes.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north \nwinds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night, then \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Winds may reach near gale force at \ntimes through Tue night, while rough seas are also expected. \nModerate to fresh northwest winds are forecast off of the Baja \nCalifornia peninsula through Tue night, with winds reaching \nstrong speeds near Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas are forecast. Looking ahead, an \narea of low pressure could form several hundred nautical miles \nsouth of the coast of southern Mexico around the middle portion \nof next week. Gradual development of this system is possible \nthereafter, and a tropical depression could form late next week \nor over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward, \nwell south of Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. \nSeas there are 7 to 10 ft downwind to near 10N90W. Elsewhere, \nwinds are moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough, and \nmoderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough, locally strong \nnear the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period \nsouthwest swell over the remainder of forecast waters, except to \n8 ft near the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is \npresent near the monsoon trough as described above across much \nof the offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas \npossible near any convection.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east \ngap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight before\nweakening with winds diminishing to moderate to fresh through \nTue, then back to fresh to strong thereafter. Moderate to fresh \nsoutherly winds will pulse south of the monsoon trough through \nMon. Large southerly swell will impact the waters mainly from \nEcuador to the Galapagos Islands through the next several days, \nlargest expected by around the middle portion of the week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe remnants of Hernan, low pressure of 1008 mb, are located \nnear 16N137.5W. Nearby winds are 20 to 25 kt in the northern \nsemicircle per very recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with seas \nof 8 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\ncontinues to flare where removed from the center between 90 nm\nand 180 nm in the NE quadrant. Moderate to locally fresh winds \nare found elsewhere from 15N to 23N between 130W and 140W, and\nfrom 08N to 21N between 118W and 130W. Moderate to fresh \nsoutherly winds are found south of the Equator. Moderate or \nweaker winds dominate the remainder of the waters. Seas are 7 to \n10 ft south of about 02N between 90W and 121W, amd 5 to 7 ft \nacross the remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail\nsouth of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near \nthe Equator to the east of about 130W over the next several days\nin persistent and reinforced southerly swells. The remnants of\nHernan and associated residual winds and seas will shift of 140W\nby this evening. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could \nform several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Gradual \ndevelopment of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical\ndepression could form late next week or over the weekend while \nthe system moves west-northwestward, well south of Mexico. \nAdditionally, an area of low pressure is expected to form well to\nthe west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula early next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form during the middle to latter portions of \nnext week while it moves generally westward across the western \nportion of the east Pacific. Regardless of development, expect\nsome increasing winds and seas with this area.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201913795469475847", "issued": "2026-08-16T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201913795469475847"}