{"msg": "238\nAXNT20 KNHC 160424\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten \nbetween surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower \npressure in northern South America. This is supporting gale- \nforce northeast to east winds off Colombia through Sun morning. \nExpect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of\nthese winds. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails.\nHeavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two \ntropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next\nseveral days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence \naloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located  \nnear 87W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy \nprecipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of\nPanama and into Choco-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second \ntropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the \ncyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an \nincrease in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly \nflow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest \nprecipitation is expected in Costa Rica through early on Sun, \nwhile the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, \nthe Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is \nsome uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could \nreach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture \nand the westerly flow enters the region. \nPlease refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather \nservices for more information.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from \n05N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is ahead of the wave S of 13N to near 33W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N \nto 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are\nnoted in the wave environment.\nAn eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 67W south of \n21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection\nis noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis.\nThe northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W\nand south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. The convection \nrelated to this feature is confined to the EPAC waters. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends \nsouthwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to \n08N53W and to near 10N60W. Convection is discussed in the \nTropical Waves section above.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near \n29N88W. Its related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate \nwinds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4 \nft. Fresh winds are occurring north and west of the Yucatan \nPeninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, as a surface trough \nextends across the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-\ncentral Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue\nwhile weakening some. This pattern will continue to support\nmostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with\npulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan\nPeninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as the diurnal surface\ntrough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW\nGulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning  \nin effect for the waters offshore Colombia.\nRefer to the section above for details on the tropical waves\nmoving across the basin.\nOutside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and \nrough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of 18N. Moderate \nto fresh trades continue over the remainder of the waters along \nwith seas of 4 to 6 ft.\nFor the forecast, the ridge N of the area combined with the \nColombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over \nmost of the east and central Caribbean through Sun. Peak winds to \nminimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight into \nearly Sun morning. The tropical wave along 67W, will continue to \nimpact the eastern and portions of the central Caribbean tonight. \nFresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and heavy rain will\nbe associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central \nCaribbean through Mon, reaching the NW part of the basin Mon night\ninto Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands\nby Tue.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nHigh pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center south-southwest \nof Bermuda near 26N71W continues across the basin. Latest \nsatellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds\nalong the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands.\nSeas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest \nsatellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker \ntrades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.\nScattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 53W. A\nsurface trough is analyzed from 31N59W to 27N64W. The base of a \nbroad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N \nbetween 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to \neast. This activity is also south of a frontal boundary well \nnorth of the area.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea \nwill cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including \nthe approaches and in the Windward Passage through Sun night. \nA cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border\neast of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast \nwaters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to \nstrong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W \non Sun and Sun night.  \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201877386637672455", "issued": "2026-08-16T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201877386637672455"}