{"msg": "751\nAXPZ20 KNHC 160319\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 87W north of 04N to inland \nwestern Nicaragua and Honduras and continuing in the NW Caribbean\nSea, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is \ndiscussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is near 106W south of 17N, moving \nwestward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the \nITCZ/monsoon trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia near 10N75W to 10N84W to 07N105W. The ITCZ \nextends from 06N108W to 04N119W to 08N128W to beyond 05N140W.\nNumerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to\n10.5N between 77W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted from 02N to 16N between 108W and 119W. Scattered moderate\nisolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south of the\nITCZ between 120W and 128W, and from 02N to 16N between 128W and\n135W. Similar convection is from 00N to 07N between 135W and\n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nFresh to near gale north gap winds are over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are near the \nPacific coast of Baja California, locally strong near Punta\nEugenia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to \n9 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft over the remaining\nopen Pacific offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of \nCalifornia. No significant deep convection is occurring over the \nMexican offshore zones.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure south of \nMexico will continue to induce pulses of fresh to strong north \nwinds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed, then moderate to\nfresh thereafter. Winds may reach near gale force at times \nthrough Tue. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are forecast off \nof the Baja California peninsula through Tue, with winds reaching\nstrong speeds near and north of Punta Eugenia east of 117W. \nElsewhere, winds and seas should remain rather calm until at \nleast mid next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could\nform several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Some \ngradual development of this system is possible thereafter while \nthe system moves west-northwestward well south of Mexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are over the\nGulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, \nwinds are moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough, and\nmoderate to fresh south of the monsoon trough, locally strong\nnear the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period \nsouthwest swell over the remainder of forecast waters, except to\n8 ft near the Galapagos Islands. Active convection is present\nnear the monsoon trough as described above.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the western Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over \nCentral America will lead to fresh to strong northeast to east \ngap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night \nbefore weakening early next week with winds diminishing to \nmoderate to fresh there. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will \npulse south of the monsoon trough through Mon. Large southerly \nswell will impact the waters mainly from Ecuador to the Galapagos\nIslands through the next several days, largest expected by \naround the middle portion of the upcoming week. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe remnants of Hernan, low pressure of 1007 mb, are located near\n16N136W. Nearby winds are 20 to 25 kt in the NW semicircle with\nseas of 8 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nhas flared up within 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Moderate to\nlocally fresh winds are found elsewhere from 14N to 24N between\n135W and 140W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found south\nof the Equator. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder\nof the waters. Seas are 7 to 10 ft south of about 02N between 89W\nand 120W, amd 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh southeast winds will prevail\nsouth of the Equator. Rough seas will pulse on either side near \nthe Equator to the east of about 130W over the next several days\nin persistent and reinforced southerly swells. The remnants of\nHernan and associated residual winds and seas will shift of 140W\nby tomorrow evening. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure \ncould form several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of \nsouthern Mexico around the middle portion of next week. Some \ngradual development of this system is possible thereafter while \nthe system moves west-northwestward well south of Mexico. \nAdditionally, an area of low pressure is expected form well to \nthe west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California \nPeninsula early next week. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form during the middle to latter portions of \nnext week while it moves generally westward across the western \nportion of the east Pacific.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201864599360045063", "issued": "2026-08-16T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201864599360045063"}