{"id": "1201859729825726471", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-16T03:00:00Z", "msg": "026\nWTPA42 PHFO 160254\nTCDCP2\n \nHurricane Lala Discussion Number  15\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026\n \nLala has strengthened a little more this afternoon as it passes just \nsouth of the Big Island. The eye remains well defined in radar \nimagery, with the northern eyewall currently brushing South Point. \nRecent Doppler radar velocity estimates indicate that winds have \nincreased within the eastern eyewall, with upwards of 80 to 85 kt \naround or just under 5,000 ft depicted. Based primarily on these \nradar data, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt for this \nadvisory.\n\nRecent radar fixes indicate that Lala is moving northwestward, or \n320/8 kt, as it continue to interact with the terrain of the Big \nIsland. Lala is now passing within 50 n mi of South Point on the Big \nIsland, where the interaction of the large-scale northeasterly flow \nwith the island terrain, along with a lee-side low northwest of the \nhurricane, could support this motion persisting tonight. These \nterrain-induced deviations may not be well represented by the \nofficial forecast guidance. For this reason, the NHC forecast lies \nto the right of the track guidance through 12 h. Thereafter, the \nofficial forecast trends back toward the multi-model consensus \n(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean as Lala turns westward and \naccelerates away from the Big Island on Sunday. This westward motion \nis expected to continue through Tuesday. A shortwave trough moving \nacross the northern Pacific around the middle of next week may \nweaken the ridge enough to allow Lala to turn toward the \nwest-northwest and then northwest, potentially approaching western \nportions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, but there remains \nquite a bit of track guidance spread around day 5.\n \nLala could maintain its intensity during the next few hours while it \npasses south of the Big Island, but weakening is expected shortly \nthereafter. As the cyclone moves west of the island, entrainment of \ndry mid-level air, along with the potential for downsloping flow \nfrom the Big Island to enter the circulation, could disrupt the \ncyclone's convective structure and contribute to weakening. Despite \nthe forecast weakening, Lala has a large wind field extending well \nnorth of the center, and the interaction of this flow with the \nterrain of the islands will continue to produce strong winds across \nportions of the island chain as Lala passes south of the smaller \nislands. Therefore, significant wind impacts could continue despite \nthe expected weakening trend. Some re-strengthening could occur \nafter 48 hours, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous \nadvisory.\n\nNHC will continue to issue hourly position updates via the Tropical\nCyclone Update product (HFOTCUCP2) as long as the eye remains well\ndefined in radar imagery.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected to continue on the\nBig Island of Hawaii into the overnight hours, with the strongest\nwind gusts expected in areas of higher terrain. Residents are urged\nto stay in their shelter through tonight. Tropical-storm-force\nwinds with gusts to near or up to hurricane strength will\npersist across portions of the smaller islands through Sunday.\n \n2. Heavy rainfall will continue over the Big Island this\nevening and then spread westward across the remainder of the\nisland chain tonight and Sunday. This rainfall will produce\nlife-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of\nsteep terrain.\n \n3. Large and dangerous waves are expected to persist across portions \nof the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend. Surf is building along \neast-facing shores and will increase along exposed southern shores \nas Lala passes through the region. This heavy surf may cause \nlocalized coastal flooding and significant beach erosion.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/0300Z 18.7N 156.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.6N 157.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 20.2N 160.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 20.3N 163.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 20.2N 165.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  18/1200Z 20.1N 167.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 20.3N 169.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 21.5N 172.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 22.9N 175.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}