{"msg": "484\nAXNT20 KNHC 152327\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2315 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nCaribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten \nbetween surface ridging over the western Atlantic and relatively \nlower pressure in northern South America. This will again favor \nincreasing winds in the south-central Caribbean, supporting gale-\nforce northeast to east winds off Colombia this evening and into\nearly on Sun morning. Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15\nft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH\nSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest \nNWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml \nfor further details.\nHeavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two \ntropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next\nseveral days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence \naloft and an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is \nlocated over eastern Honduras and western Nicaragua, or near 86W.\nAs this wave continues westward, expect heavy precipitation to \ncontinue in Costa Rica, the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia \non into Sun. On Sun, the second tropical wave will enter the \nwestern Caribbean and strengthen the cyclonic rotation over \nPanama and Colombia that will favor an increase in available \nmoisture into Colombia and moist easterly flow into the eastern \nportion of Costa Rica. The heaviest precipitation is expected in \nCosta Rica through the rest of today and into early on Sun, while\nthe heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, the \nDarien Region, and Choc-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is some \nuncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, \nparticularly due to how far south the available moisture and the \nwesterly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC \nInternational Desk and local weather services for more \ninformation.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from\n05N to 21N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate\nconvection is ahead of the wave to near 33W from 09N to 11W.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from\n04N to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers \nand thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 47W and from\n09N to 15N.\nAn eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 66W/67W south\nof 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is present from 14N to 18N\nbetween 64W and 70W.\nA far western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of \n22N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is increasing over the southwestern \nportion of basin in the wake of the wave, where the eastern \nsegment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present. The \nconvection is of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type \nconfined to south of 13N from 80W westward to over most of Costa \nRica and Panamas as well as southern Nicaragua.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and \nextends southwestward to 15N21W, and to 12N27W to 13N37W and \nsouthwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to \n08N53W and to near 09N60W. Convection is discussed in the \nTropical Waves section above. In addition, numerous moderate to \nisolated strong convection is just inland the coast of Africa\nfrom 07N to 15N.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1023 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near \n29N92W. Its related gradient is generally supporting gentle to \nmoderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the \nbasin are 2 to 4 ft. A trough extends from near 22N94W to \n18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen \nwest of the trough to 97W from 20N to 23N. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are over some sections of the Gulf from 22N to 26N \neast of 96W. A westward moving mid to upper-level disturbance is \nhelping to sustain this activity.\nFor the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the \nnorth-central Gulf through Mon, then move toward the \nsoutheastern part of the Gulf by Tue while weakening some. This \npattern will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate east \nto southeast winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds \noccurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the \nBay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the\nYucatan Peninsula westward across the southwestern Gulf. Slight \nto moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning \nthat is in effect for the waters offshore Colombia.\nOutside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and \nrough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of about \n18N. Moderate to locally fresh trades continue over the \nremainder of the waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft.\nFor the forecast, the combination between high pressure over the\nwestern Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in northern South\nAmerica will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most\nof the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to \nminimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight.\nThe tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will \ncontinue across some sections of Central America tonight, moving\nwest into the Pacific on Sun. A strong eastern caribbean \ntropical wave, with its axis along 66W/67W will continue to \nimpact the eastern Caribbean through Sun, with numerous showers \nand thunderstorms, some heavy with strong gusty winds. These \nweather conditions are forecast to shift westward to the western \nCaribbean Sun through Mon night.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nHigh pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high center south-southwest of \nBermuda near 26N69W continues across the basin. Latest satellite \nAscat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds along the \ncoast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands. Seas are \naround 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest satellite \nscatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker trades.\nSeas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades.\nScattered moderate convection is seen from 29N to 30N between \n66W and 71W, and from 30N to 31N between 61W and 66W. The base \nof a broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of \n31N between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west\nto east. This activity is also south of a stationary front that \nis well north of the area.\nOf note: An extensive plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is\nspreading westward across most of the basin south of about 28N \nand just east of South Florida and the Keys as noted in the GOES-\nderived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product. From climatology,\nthe SAL usually becomes evident around the middle of June, peaking \nfrom late June to mid-August, then begins to rapidly diminish after \nmid-August.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined \nwith the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will \ncause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the \napproaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon \nthrough Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push \nacross the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, and \nmove across the northern forecast waters on Mon while dissipating\ninto a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds \nare expected ahead of the front and east of about 70W on Sun and\nSun night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1201819103044665351", "issued": "2026-08-15T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1201819103044665351"}